Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1654
Matias Makiranta
This paper uses big data on German online vacancies to investigate the impact of local labour market concentration on wages. Herfindahl-Hirschman Indexes are calculated based on the number of vacancies posted by firms in geographic-occupational labour markets. Based on IV results, a 1% increase in labour market concentration decreases posted wages for full-time employees by 0.098%. Workers who can work remotely do not face negative wage effects from labour market concentration suggesting that worker mobility can mitigate the negative wage effects of labour market concentration. While most vacancies occur in competitive labour markets, rural areas exhibit notable concentration.
{"title":"Title Pending 1654","authors":"Matias Makiranta","doi":"10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1654","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses big data on German online vacancies to investigate the impact of local labour market concentration on wages. Herfindahl-Hirschman Indexes are calculated based on the number of vacancies posted by firms in geographic-occupational labour markets. Based on IV results, a 1% increase in labour market concentration decreases posted wages for full-time employees by 0.098%. Workers who can work remotely do not face negative wage effects from labour market concentration suggesting that worker mobility can mitigate the negative wage effects of labour market concentration. While most vacancies occur in competitive labour markets, rural areas exhibit notable concentration.","PeriodicalId":284778,"journal":{"name":"UCL Journal of Economics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135790342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1598
William Nguyen
This paper empirically investigates the distributional effects of the UK carbon price floor (CPF) on households’ electricity expenditure. I employ the difference-in-differences model to analyse the impact of the carbon price floor on vertical inequality. The main result finds that households in the poorest quintile are most impacted by the electricity price increase. I further explore the heterogenous effect on households within the bottom quintile by considering various household characteristics. This paper contributes to the existing literature on carbon pricing policies, in particular their impact on inequality both across income groups and within households in the poorest quintile.
{"title":"Title Pending 1598","authors":"William Nguyen","doi":"10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1598","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1598","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically investigates the distributional effects of the UK carbon price floor (CPF) on households’ electricity expenditure. I employ the difference-in-differences model to analyse the impact of the carbon price floor on vertical inequality. The main result finds that households in the poorest quintile are most impacted by the electricity price increase. I further explore the heterogenous effect on households within the bottom quintile by considering various household characteristics. This paper contributes to the existing literature on carbon pricing policies, in particular their impact on inequality both across income groups and within households in the poorest quintile.","PeriodicalId":284778,"journal":{"name":"UCL Journal of Economics","volume":"135 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135790448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1691
Iain Simmons
Outcome bias is a pervasive phenomenon in decision-making, referring to the tendency to evaluate decisions made under identical circumstances as more favourable when it results in the desired outcome. This paper analyses this cognitive bias in the context of top-flight European football, examining whether a Bayesian updating model distorted by a multiplicative outcome bias is valid. Managers make significantly more changes to their strategy following a loss than a win, even having controlled for expected performance, in-game performance, and team and game-specific variation. The results of this paper are consistent with a positive-outcome bias, but not necessarily a multiplicative bias.
{"title":"Title Pending 1691","authors":"Iain Simmons","doi":"10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1691","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1691","url":null,"abstract":"Outcome bias is a pervasive phenomenon in decision-making, referring to the tendency to evaluate decisions made under identical circumstances as more favourable when it results in the desired outcome. This paper analyses this cognitive bias in the context of top-flight European football, examining whether a Bayesian updating model distorted by a multiplicative outcome bias is valid. Managers make significantly more changes to their strategy following a loss than a win, even having controlled for expected performance, in-game performance, and team and game-specific variation. The results of this paper are consistent with a positive-outcome bias, but not necessarily a multiplicative bias.","PeriodicalId":284778,"journal":{"name":"UCL Journal of Economics","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135790598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1693
Phineas Godfrey
This is a note from the incoming director of the UJE.
这是UJE即将上任的主任的笔记。
{"title":"A Note from the New Director","authors":"Phineas Godfrey","doi":"10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1693","url":null,"abstract":"This is a note from the incoming director of the UJE.","PeriodicalId":284778,"journal":{"name":"UCL Journal of Economics","volume":"136 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135791428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-27DOI: 10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1403
Yiyang Li, Xingzuo Zhou, Tianning Zhu, Xiaoyu Guo
During the COVID-19 pandemic, a dual shock to the economy and health system, the sentiments of uncertainty and insecurity have exacerbated the racial inequalities in the United States - contributing to the rise of antagonistic racial tension. Using hate crime data published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), this study implemented a Multinomial Logistic Regression to analyse the marginal probability of different races committing hate crimes. It is found that all races except for African Americans tend to target African Americans as victims of a racial hate crime. This study reveals the racial inequality and discrimination that existed in the United States, providing policymakers and public activists with evidence and direction to make efforts.
{"title":"Racial Hate Crime and COVID-19: A Multinomial Choice Study in the US","authors":"Yiyang Li, Xingzuo Zhou, Tianning Zhu, Xiaoyu Guo","doi":"10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1403","url":null,"abstract":"During the COVID-19 pandemic, a dual shock to the economy and health system, the sentiments of uncertainty and insecurity have exacerbated the racial inequalities in the United States - contributing to the rise of antagonistic racial tension. Using hate crime data published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), this study implemented a Multinomial Logistic Regression to analyse the marginal probability of different races committing hate crimes. It is found that all races except for African Americans tend to target African Americans as victims of a racial hate crime. This study reveals the racial inequality and discrimination that existed in the United States, providing policymakers and public activists with evidence and direction to make efforts.","PeriodicalId":284778,"journal":{"name":"UCL Journal of Economics","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125306625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-27DOI: 10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1402
Gaurav Khatri
On the 25th of August 2017, the military of Myanmar initiated a large-scale genocide of Rohingya Muslims living in the country’s Rakhine region. Over 650,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar and sought refuge in Southern Bangladesh in August and September of 2017, with over 90% of them settling in the latter nation’s Chittagong division (UNHRC, 2021). This constituted an approximately 3% rise in the population of Chittagong, with the figure being over 30% for districts within Chittagong with particularly high refugee populations such as Cox’s Bazaar (IFPRI, 2019). This paper employs difference-in-differences regression analysis to investigate how this influx – and the associated increase in labour supply – impacted the wages of low-skilled workers in Chittagong. It is found that the crisis did not depress wages in the region.
{"title":"The Effects of Rohingya Refugees from Myanmar on Low-Skilled Wages in the Chittagong Division of Bangladesh","authors":"Gaurav Khatri","doi":"10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1402","url":null,"abstract":"On the 25th of August 2017, the military of Myanmar initiated a large-scale genocide of Rohingya Muslims living in the country’s Rakhine region. Over 650,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar and sought refuge in Southern Bangladesh in August and September of 2017, with over 90% of them settling in the latter nation’s Chittagong division (UNHRC, 2021). This constituted an approximately 3% rise in the population of Chittagong, with the figure being over 30% for districts within Chittagong with particularly high refugee populations such as Cox’s Bazaar (IFPRI, 2019). This paper employs difference-in-differences regression analysis to investigate how this influx – and the associated increase in labour supply – impacted the wages of low-skilled workers in Chittagong. It is found that the crisis did not depress wages in the region.","PeriodicalId":284778,"journal":{"name":"UCL Journal of Economics","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129249269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-27DOI: 10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1405
Suraj Sridhar
Income-based segregation is a fundamentally complex phenomenon. Though it can be analytically studied, developing an agent-based model allows us to study segregation at several levels of aggregation – to better understand the interactions that take place in between the micro- and macro- levels that lead to the pattern of segregation observed in modern cities. The spatial agent-based model of the housing market developed in this paper gives a foundation which can be built upon to tackle some of the key problems present in existing literature. We test the model to find that the degree to which households are willing to spend on rent relative to other expenditure and the extremity of variation of this degree in the population give rise to different patterns of segregation observed in the housing market. We assume a rental-only market, and that agents’ incomes are locally spent. A section on guidance for further development and extension of the model is then presented.
{"title":"Income-based Segregation in Urban Areas: Framework for a Complex-Systems Approach","authors":"Suraj Sridhar","doi":"10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1405","url":null,"abstract":"Income-based segregation is a fundamentally complex phenomenon. Though it can be analytically studied, developing an agent-based model allows us to study segregation at several levels of aggregation – to better understand the interactions that take place in between the micro- and macro- levels that lead to the pattern of segregation observed in modern cities. The spatial agent-based model of the housing market developed in this paper gives a foundation which can be built upon to tackle some of the key problems present in existing literature. We test the model to find that the degree to which households are willing to spend on rent relative to other expenditure and the extremity of variation of this degree in the population give rise to different patterns of segregation observed in the housing market. We assume a rental-only market, and that agents’ incomes are locally spent. A section on guidance for further development and extension of the model is then presented.","PeriodicalId":284778,"journal":{"name":"UCL Journal of Economics","volume":"181 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122435615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-27DOI: 10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1408
Nolan Siegel
What is the nature of substantive representation within American institutions of government, and to what extent do constituents’ preferences turn into adopted policy? To answer these questions, I analyze data on federal policies proposed between 1964 and 2006 and constituents’ support for them by running a series of linear probability models to estimate the chance of policy adoption as a function of constituent support. I find the president is more responsive to constituents than Congress, and high-income constituents’ preferences – but not those of median- and low-income constituents – are significantly correlated with policies adopted by both Congress and the president.
{"title":"From Preference to Policy: Wealth, Institutions of Government, and the Search for Democracy","authors":"Nolan Siegel","doi":"10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1408","url":null,"abstract":"What is the nature of substantive representation within American institutions of government, and to what extent do constituents’ preferences turn into adopted policy? To answer these questions, I analyze data on federal policies proposed between 1964 and 2006 and constituents’ support for them by running a series of linear probability models to estimate the chance of policy adoption as a function of constituent support. I find the president is more responsive to constituents than Congress, and high-income constituents’ preferences – but not those of median- and low-income constituents – are significantly correlated with policies adopted by both Congress and the president.","PeriodicalId":284778,"journal":{"name":"UCL Journal of Economics","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131072018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-27DOI: 10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1400
Jakub Terlikowski
The COVID-19 pandemic and associated vaccine shortages in many places have caused immense suffering. This paper proposes a theoretical framework for finding the optimal vaccine allocation among interconnected populations. In particular, the analysis focuses on modelling how interaction and administrative constraints affect the optimal vaccine allocation. The proposed framework suggests that both factors affect the optimal vaccine allocation differently, especially when the shortage of vaccines is severe. Four hypotheses are put forward, which should be verified empirically in order to falsify the plausibility of the proposed theoretical framework.
{"title":"Optimal Vaccine Allocation: Modelling Population Interaction and Administrative Constraints","authors":"Jakub Terlikowski","doi":"10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1400","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic and associated vaccine shortages in many places have caused immense suffering. This paper proposes a theoretical framework for finding the optimal vaccine allocation among interconnected populations. In particular, the analysis focuses on modelling how interaction and administrative constraints affect the optimal vaccine allocation. The proposed framework suggests that both factors affect the optimal vaccine allocation differently, especially when the shortage of vaccines is severe. Four hypotheses are put forward, which should be verified empirically in order to falsify the plausibility of the proposed theoretical framework.","PeriodicalId":284778,"journal":{"name":"UCL Journal of Economics","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132682554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-27DOI: 10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1407
Abishek Roy
This paper tries to establish some causal connection between per capita income and the percentage of renewable energy generated by a state in the US, through the course of 2000-2018. The literature on relations between different macroeconomic factors and renewable energy indicate reverse causality. Moreover, there is not much consensus on whether wealthier states and countries truly have an edge over other countries other than financial and investment ability. Hence, this paper tries to establish a relation between per capita income and renewable energy generation in the context of the USA. Granger Causality was used to establish causal links between the per capita income and the percentage of energy generated by different states that is derived from renewable sources. For states without bidirectional causality, fixed effects regression indicated a statistically significant positive relation between Per Capita Income and renewable energy – a $100 increase in per capita income was associated with a 0.04% increase in the percentage of total energy of a state derived from renewable sources. This points at potential disparities between wealthy and poorer states and adds to the argument of providing more regulatory, financial, and technological aid to poorer states in order to reduce their reliance on non-renewables.
{"title":"Do Wealthy States in the USA Have a Disproportionate Advantage in Generating Renewable Energy?","authors":"Abishek Roy","doi":"10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.1407","url":null,"abstract":"This paper tries to establish some causal connection between per capita income and the percentage of renewable energy generated by a state in the US, through the course of 2000-2018. The literature on relations between different macroeconomic factors and renewable energy indicate reverse causality. Moreover, there is not much consensus on whether wealthier states and countries truly have an edge over other countries other than financial and investment ability. Hence, this paper tries to establish a relation between per capita income and renewable energy generation in the context of the USA. Granger Causality was used to establish causal links between the per capita income and the percentage of energy generated by different states that is derived from renewable sources. For states without bidirectional causality, fixed effects regression indicated a statistically significant positive relation between Per Capita Income and renewable energy – a $100 increase in per capita income was associated with a 0.04% increase in the percentage of total energy of a state derived from renewable sources. This points at potential disparities between wealthy and poorer states and adds to the argument of providing more regulatory, financial, and technological aid to poorer states in order to reduce their reliance on non-renewables.","PeriodicalId":284778,"journal":{"name":"UCL Journal of Economics","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127790508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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