Application of Probability Theory to Analyze Impact of disease on Human Life Expectancy

Senay T. Imam, S. Ekwaro-Osire, Ming-Chyu Chyu
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Abstract

Aging is a phenomenon that can be observed in biological and mechanical systems. The quest for a general explanation of aging invites us to consider the underlying theory of systems failure known as reliability theory. The objective of this paper is to probabilistically investigate the trends of human aging in different age groups based on their annual mortality rate due to certain disease. Data of two leading causes of death from 2005 to 2008 were analyzed, to determine the significance of the mortality decrease in individual age group, and the sensitivity of each disease with respect to age.
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概率论在分析疾病对人类预期寿命影响中的应用
老化是一种可以在生物和机械系统中观察到的现象。对老化的一般解释的探索使我们考虑到系统失效的基本理论,即可靠性理论。本文的目的是基于某种疾病的年死亡率,对不同年龄组的人类衰老趋势进行概率调查。分析了2005年至2008年两种主要死亡原因的数据,以确定各个年龄组死亡率下降的意义,以及每种疾病相对于年龄的敏感性。
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