A New Investment Strategy with Economic Cycle Alternations Based on Residual Income Valuation Model: Empirical Results from Taiwan Stock Markets

Tang-Lin Hwang
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Abstract

The purpose of this research is an attempt to present a mixed model based on the residual income valuation model, where two new factors, business cycles and financial items, are added. We offer a practical investment opinion by which investors and fundamental analysts can either establish or adjust their portfolios if there is an effort made to reverse the present economic atmosphere due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.We find that the items in financial reports don’t have the same impacts for different business cycles. However, tax has a significantly positive sign when economies are expanding or contracting.
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基于剩余收益估值模型的经济周期交替投资新策略:台湾股市的实证结果
本研究的目的是试图在剩余收益估值模型的基础上提出一个混合模型,其中增加了两个新的因素,商业周期和财务项目。如果因新型冠状病毒感染症(COVID-19)大流行而出现扭转当前经济形势的努力,我们将提供实用的投资意见,供投资者和基本面分析师建立或调整投资组合。我们发现财务报告中的项目对不同经济周期的影响并不相同。然而,当经济扩张或收缩时,税收是一个明显的积极信号。
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