Coupling analysis of ship collision risk factors based on N-K model

Abstract

The development process of ship collision risk is a typical "error induction system", which determines that ship collision risk factors have the characteristics of coupling risk causing. Therefore, revealing the coupling action law of ship collision risk factors in ship collision events has practical guiding value for improving the level of ship collision risk pre-control. Firstly, according to the nature of ship collision risk factors, it can be divided into four categories: environmental adverse risk factors, technical error risk factors, procedural error risk factors and knowledge error risk factors. Then the ship collision accident report is used as the basic data to obtain the data of these four risk factors. Finally, the N-K model was used to quantify the risk values of these four types of risk factors under different coupling types. The results show that the more factors involved in coupling, the greater the coupling value and the higher the accident risk. The coupling type involving procedural error risk factors and knowledge error risk factors is more likely to lead to the occurrence of ship collision accidents, which is the key control object of ship collision risk.