mRNA Vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 are “95% Effective”: What Does That Mean?

Abstract

J Neurol Neurocrit Care, Volume 3(4): 1–1, 2020 In a recent paper, Polack et al. [1], who are members of the C4591001 Clinical Trial Group, stated that the Pfizer vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 is 95% effective. The Clinical Trial Group and their paper are funded by BioNTech and Pfizer. The statement that the mRNA vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 manufactured by Pfizer and Modern are 95% effective has been made countless times in the media and by the heads of the CDC and NIAID and other physicians and public health authorities. But what does “95% effective” actually mean? It is a relative risk number. What are the raw data reported by Polack et al. [1]? In their trial, 21,720 participants received the active vaccine and 21,728 received placebo. Altogether, 162 participants in the placebo group developed COVID-19 illness compared to 8 in the vaccine group; 9 participants in the placebo group developed severe COVID-19 disease compared to 1 in the vaccine group. This is a reduction in COVID-19 illness of 95% (the rate of illness in the vaccine group was 8/162 = 5% of the rate in the placebo group). There were no deaths in either group. This means that there is no evidence that mRNA vaccines reduce the risk of death from COVID-19 illness.