Analyse et prospective de la réponse de politique en RD Congo face à l’incertitude de la Covid-19

Abstract

The Covid-19 shock has maken the uncertainty more acute. That uncertainty has seriously dysfunctioning the Congolese economy and influenced the implementation of the monetary policy. Using the “Minnesota Prior Bayesian VAR model”, we are estimating the Covid-19 uncertainty shock on the economy and monetary policy response. The effect of Covid-19 uncertainty strikes unprecedented aggregate demand and the economy. In addition, it undermines the action of monetary policy to soften this fall in aggregate demand and curb inflation impacted by pass-through effect. However, the shock of monetary policy via an appropriate control of monetary base seems comfortable to mitigate this crisis. We suggest a consistency of the policy mix and the careful development of unconventional monetary policy framework to hope for a recovery and to ensure confidence.