Collision Risk Modeling in the Northern Pacific Airspace under Separation Reduction and Improvements in Navigational Performance

Theresa Brewer-Dougherty, B. Colamosca, Christine Gerhardt-Falk, D. Livingston, Lauren Martin, Elsayed A. Elsayed, C. Schroepfer
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a collision risk model for the Northern Pacific airspace taking into consideration a reduction in separation standards, and enhancements in the navigational performance. New methods are proposed which consider pairwise interactions between aircraft, and a modified application of the Reich collision risk model is introduced. Simulation programs are developed and applied to various scenarios, and results including risk estimates are obtained. This study utilizes components of the Northern Pacific Airspace Cost Effectiveness (NPACE) Study, which uses simulated flight data to investigate the effects of future changes to the airspace. The risk assessment of the Northern Pacific airspace shows that by having more flights with RNP-4 designation and supported by careful management of airspace operations to reduce lateral navigational errors, the enhanced navigational accuracy results in lower lateral overlap probabilities, which lead to lower estimated risk in all scenarios. The research...
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北太平洋空域在减少间隔和改进导航性能下的碰撞风险建模
在本文中,我们开发了北太平洋空域的碰撞风险模型,考虑了分离标准的降低和导航性能的增强。提出了考虑飞机间成对相互作用的新方法,并介绍了Reich碰撞风险模型的改进应用。开发了模拟程序并应用于各种场景,并获得了包括风险估计在内的结果。本研究利用了北太平洋空域成本效益(NPACE)研究的组成部分,该研究使用模拟飞行数据来调查未来空域变化的影响。北太平洋空域的风险评估表明,通过增加RNP-4指定的航班,并辅以空域操作的精心管理以减少横向导航错误,导航精度的提高导致横向重叠概率降低,从而降低所有情景下的估计风险。研究……
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