Achievability of Pakistan's 2030 Electricity Generation Goals Established under Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF): Validation Using Time Series Models and Error Decomposition Technique

Abstract

Forecasting Pakistan's energy needs is imperative to develop adequate plans for addressing long term energy requirements. Despite the availability of variety of forecasting models and decision making tools, the forecasts and projections are frequently off by wide margins. The Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) developed by Government of Pakistan forecasted that the electricity generation capacity will be increased from the existing 19540 MW to over 162,590 MW by 2030. Similar projections are made regarding the sectoral and cumulative consumption. Keeping in view the historical electricity generation capacities of 6444 MW Hydel, 12000 MW Thermal between 1950-2005 and only 460 MW Nuclear between 1980 and 2000, it seems very unlikely that these projections are achievable due to a variety of political, technical and financial barriers. Well established Time Series Models and Error Decomposition Technique were applied to assess the achievability of the projections made in the MTDF and it was found that the country is going to miss these projections by a wide margins. Suggestions have been made to make more realistic forecasts.