An approach to model the interventions of unconventional emergency

Lao-bing Zhang, Chen Bin, L. Liang, Yuanzheng Ge, X. Qiu
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Abstract

Aim at preventing, or controlling if prevention is not possible, the spread of disease. We model several types of commonly-used government interventions in order to quantify this research. Finally we computationally tested the models using an artificial campus. The results show: 1) Campus pandemics extinguish even without intervention 2) Small scale inoculation programs are ineffectual, but large scale inoculation programs will bring non-linear increases in benefits 3) Identifying and isolating the infectious and their `strong social group' quickly dramatically lowers spread 4)Isolation Plus Close Public-space Intervention will decrease the peak value and the last time. This study can support quantitative experimentation and prediction of infectious diseases within predefined areas, and assessment of intervention strategies.
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一种模拟非常规紧急情况干预措施的方法
旨在预防或在无法预防时控制疾病的传播。为了量化这项研究,我们对几种常用的政府干预措施进行了建模。最后,我们用一个人工校园对模型进行了计算测试。结果表明:1)校园流行病即使没有干预也会消失;2)小规模的接种计划效果不佳,但大规模的接种计划将带来非线性的效益增长;3)识别和隔离传染病及其“强社会群体”迅速显著降低传播;4)隔离加封闭公共空间干预将减少峰值和最后时间。该研究可支持定量实验和预先确定区域内传染病的预测,以及评估干预策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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