APPROACHES TO FORECASTING INDICATORS TO DETERMINE THE NEED FOR TEACHERS IN THE SYSTEM OF GENERAL SECONDARY EDUCATION

Abstract

Considering the current stage of development of general secondary education, one of the most important issues is to provide qualified pedagogical staff to the general secondary education institutions (GSEIs). This research examines the framework for forecasting the indicators of the general secondary education system using demographic information and statistical reporting data at the national and regional levels by types of territory (urban settlements, rural areas). New approaches to the analysis of the information environment for forecasting the evolution of indicators have been implemented and the set tasks have been thoroughly researched. The logical sequence of the indicators was defined so the principles and methods of forecasting can be implemented. The framework for the created models and applied methods used for calculating the forecast values of indicators was substantiated, in particular the general school body, number of pupils of ninth grade who will continue attending tenth grade, number of pedagogical staff, teachers and teachers of retirement age still working. The calculations of the forecast school body for the period of 2020/2021–2024/2025 academic years allow identifying certain trends in migration and demographic processes occurring in the regions of Ukraine. Estimated forecast values for the period of 2020/2021–2024/2025 academic years for the number of pedagogical staff, teachers and teachers of retirement age still working allows us to assess the annual additional need for qualified personnel for the GSEIs. The usage of the obtained results will become an important background for the creation of multifactor models to simultaneously take into account the impact of several factors on the development of the forecast system and assess the prospects for its development in the future.