Self-organized criticality, causality and correlation of probability of recurrence between daily mean temperature and dew point across India

Abstract

The temperature and dew point records of seven weather stations, located in India have been scrutinized under the self-organized criticality regime. The data models an almost ideal scaling behaviour as of the type of t/fα noise; with α≈1. This scaling behaviour strongly suggests the presence of self-organized criticality (SOC) behind both the signals. To draw more insight into the detailed dynamics and to strengthen the explanation of such behaviour, causal relationship exploiting singularity spectrum analysis (SSA), multivariate singularity spectrum analysis (MSSA) and Correlation of Probability of Recurrence (CPR) based on recurrence plot have been studied in between the two signals for all the stations. The results reveal sufficient causal relationship and high correlation of probability of recurrence for strong support behind such critical dynamical systems.