Soberanía Alimentaria de granos básicos en México: un enfoque de cointegración de Johansen a partir del TLCAN

Abstract

Se presenta un analisis grafico y econometrico de la soberania alimentaria de granos basicos (arroz, frijol, maiz y trigo), medida a traves de sus importaciones, para el caso de Mexico a partir del TLCAN. El analisis grafico describe el comportamiento del area cosechada, la produccion, la importacion, asi como la oferta de cada cultivo. En cuanto al analisis econometrico, se emplea un enfoque de cointegracion de Johansen, con el cual se obtienen las elasticidades ingreso y precio de la demanda de importaciones de granos basicos. Se concluye que la soberania alimentaria se deterioro en el periodo 1994-2016; cada ano Mexico dependio mas de importaciones para satisfacer la demanda interna de granos basicos, creciendo esta ante aumentos de la actividad economica y del tipo de cambio real. Abstract This document presents a graphical and econometric analysis of food sovereignty of basic grains (rice, beans, corn and wheat), measured through their imports, for the case of Mexico since the establishment of NAFTA. The graphical analysis described the behavior of the harvested area, the production, the import, as well as the supply of each crop. Regarding the econometric analysis, a Johansen cointegration approach was used, with which the income and price elasticities of the demand for basic grain imports were gotten. It was concluded that food sovereignty deteriorated in the period 1994-2016; each year Mexico depended more on imports to satisfy domestic demand of basic grains, increasing this demand with raises in economic activity and the real exchange rate.