Are EU Members’ Economies an “Engine” of the EU Candidates’ Economies?

Marija Radulović, M. Kostić
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Abstract Research background: Economic relations between countries members of the EU and EU candidates are very strong. Germany and France have the leading economies of the EU, are in the top ten economies worldwide, and drivers of EU development. Serbia has strong economic relations with Germany and France, especially with Germany. Therefore, it is necessary to examine whether Germany and France impact the development of Serbia. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to determine if there is a positive influence of a developed country on a developing country. The aim of the paper is to determine whether there is a long- and short-term positive relationship between Germany and France (EU members) and the Serbian economy (EU candidate). Research methodology: A Vector Error Correction Model is used to analyze quarterly data from 2002Q2 to 2018Q2. Results: The results showed a statistically significant long-term relationship between Germany and France and Serbia’s real GDPs, so EU members have a long-term positive impact on the economy of EU candidates. In the case of the French, there is a short-run positive impact on the Serbian economy. For Germany, it is not the case. Novelty: This paper fills the literature gap about the influence of a developed country on a developing country. Recommendations for policymakers in EU candidates could be that if they want to motivate people to accept the process of access to the EU, they must provide them with more information about long-run economic benefits from the association to the EU.
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欧盟成员国经济是欧盟候选国经济的“引擎”吗?
研究背景:欧盟成员国与欧盟候选国之间的经济关系十分密切。德国和法国是欧盟经济龙头,世界经济前十名,是欧盟发展的引擎。塞尔维亚与德国和法国有着密切的经济关系,尤其是与德国。因此,有必要考察德国和法国是否影响了塞尔维亚的发展。目的:本研究的目的是确定发达国家对发展中国家是否有积极影响。本文的目的是确定德国和法国(欧盟成员国)与塞尔维亚经济(欧盟候选国)之间是否存在长期和短期的积极关系。研究方法:采用矢量误差修正模型分析2002年第二季度至2018年第二季度的季度数据。结果:研究结果显示,德国和法国与塞尔维亚的实际gdp之间存在统计学上显著的长期关系,因此欧盟成员国对欧盟候选国的经济具有长期的积极影响。就法国而言,这对塞尔维亚经济产生了短期的积极影响。对德国来说,情况并非如此。新颖性:填补了发达国家对发展中国家影响的文献空白。对欧盟候选国政策制定者的建议可能是,如果他们想要激励人们接受加入欧盟的过程,他们必须向他们提供更多有关该协会给欧盟带来的长期经济利益的信息。
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