Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Model Development

Abstract

A critical review of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) models used in the pipeline industry was conducted as part of a project titled “Critical Review of Candidate Pipeline Risk Models”, which was carried out for the U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Guidelines for the development and application of pipeline QRA models were developed as a part of this project, following an extensive literature review and an industry survey. The guidelines provide a framework for performing QRA for natural gas and hazardous liquids transmission pipelines, and address risk estimation, which involves estimating the failure frequency and failure consequences. They are intended to assist operators in developing new QRA models, and in identifying and addressing gaps in their existing models. They are also intended to help regulators evaluate the accuracy, completeness, and effectiveness of the QRA models developed by operators.