Research on the frequency prediction of barrier-free resources in airport terminal based on ARIMA model

Abstract

At present, the airport is constantly promoting the construction of barrier-free environment to assist special passengers with hearing, visual or mobility problems. More and more barrier-free service resources such as new technologies, new products and new facilities are deployed in the terminal. In order to better improve the utilization rate and deployment rationality of barrier-free service resources and enhance the barrier-free service guarantee capability of civil aviation airports, it is necessary to evaluate the current use of barrier-free service resources and predict the future use frequency. In this paper, using the mathematical model with high prediction accuracy, a kind of usage prediction method suitable for many kinds of barrier-free service resources is verified. In order to better illustrate the content of the prediction method of this article, the accessibility service resource research object is marked as ‘Facility A’. Based on the randomness and time relevance of the use of ‘Facility A’ by passengers, using python to generate random frequency time series data on the usage frequency of ’Facility A’ in the past 60 months. The serial data is as the original data for method of study in this paper, regarded as real data as well. After the analysis and processing of the original data, to build a mathematical prediction model of usage frequency based on ARIMA model, to calculate the usage prediction data based on the real data, and analyzing the deviation between the real data and the predicted data using with the mathematical theory, so as to verify the feasibility of the prediction method in this paper.