Regression analysis of JEPX market price

Nobuyuki Nishiyama, Akihiro Mukai, H. Miyauchi, T. Misawa
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Abstract

The deregulation of electric power utilities has been progressing all over the world including Japan. Therefore, it is useful for coming full liberalization to analyze current market price and its structure. In this paper, we analyze the market prices of JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange) by simple regression equations, of which explanatory variables are a value related to demand and the power price of 24 hours ago. The results of JEPX price data compare with the results of New England electricity market price data. Furthermore, as the regression analysis for the winter peak period is not good, we add temperature or crude oil price data as a new explanation variable to improve the coefficients of determination.
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JEPX市场价格的回归分析
包括日本在内的世界各国都在推进对电力公司的管制。因此,分析目前的市场价格及其结构,对全面放开是有益的。本文采用简单回归方程对日本电力交易所(JEPX)的市场价格进行了分析,其中解释变量为与需求和24小时前电价相关的一个值。将JEPX电价数据结果与新英格兰电力市场电价数据结果进行比较。此外,由于冬季高峰期的回归分析不好,我们增加了温度或原油价格数据作为新的解释变量,以提高确定系数。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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