Analysis of global metallurgical coke production and forecasts review.

Abstract

ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL METALLURGICAL COKE PRODUCTION AND FORECASTS REVIEW © S.A. Kravchenko, PhD in Technical Sciences, S.V. Chaplianko, PhD in Technical Sciences, A.A. Kogtin (STATE ENTERPRISE "STATE INSTITUTE FOR DESIGNING ENTERPRISES OF COKE OVEN AND BY-PRODUCT PLANTS'' (SE "GIPROKOKS'')", 60 Sumska str., Kharkiv, 61002, Ukraine) Taking into account, that met coke production volume is determined by blast furnace production need, and blast furnace production is determined by steelmaking production need, the analysis of the world pig iron and steel production in 2019 - 2021 and for 6 months of 2022 has been done. It has been shown, that in the specified period, the world metallurgical production had fluctuating trends: ±29 million tons (±2,0 %) for iron and ±53 million tons (±2,7%) for steel. Domestic metallurgical production in 2019 – 2021 was characterized by an increase in volume by 1,1 million tons (5,2 %) for iron and a fluctuation of ±0,4 million tons (±1,9 %) for steel, in January - September 2022 took place the impetuous decrease by 6,2 million tons (57,9%) for iron and by 6,3 million tons (58,2 %) for steel, compared to the same period in 2021, which due to the consequences of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. The world met coke production in 2019 - 2021 had fluctuating trends: approximately ±27 million tons (±3,9 %). Domestic met coke production in 2019 - 2021 was characterized by a decrease in volume by 0,44 million tons (5,2 %), and in January - November 2022 took place the impetuous decrease by 4,3 million tons (58,1 %), compared to the same period in 2021, which one also is related to the consequences of armed aggression. Some the world met coke production forecasts for 2023 – 2030 have been considered. It has been shown, that there is no consensus on the world coke production development. The most negative, among those considered, is the scenario of a decrease the world coke production to 87,7 billion USD at the end of 2028, the most positive – an increase to 264,6 billion USD in 2030. Considering the global steel production forecast from Worldsteel Association, the most probability is a restrained forecast with fluctuating trends in 2023 – 2024 and increase in the future due to urbanization in the Asia-Pacific region. Keywords: pig iron, steel, metallurgical coke, coke-chemical production, analysis, forecast Corresponding author S.V. Chaplianko e-mail: chaplianko_sv@ukr.net