Assessment of air temperature changes in the Moscow region

Abstract

The long-term dynamics of the average annual and seasonal air temperature on the territory of the Moscow region is considered. To assess the significance of linear trends in annual and seasonal air temperature, the criterion “trend-to-noise ratio” was used, calculated according to the method of V.E. Chuba. In addition, statistical criteria were used the Spearman criterion and the correlation coefficient. It has been established that the highest value of annual air temperature, falls on the territory of the city of Moscow, where its own special microclimate is created, and the lowest value of the average annual air temperature is observed at the weather station Mozhaisk. When analyzing the trend in the rate of increase in annual air temperature, the following results were obtained. The increase in the average annual air temperature over the period for Moscow is 2,61 °C/74 years, for the southeastern part of the Moscow region (Kolomna) is 2,26 °C/97 years and for the western part of the region from Mozhaisk) is 2,36/90 years. Checking the significance of linear trends showed that in the dynamics of the average annual, seasonal and maximum and minimum air temperatures in the Moscow region, there is a positive statistically significant linear trend.