Characterizing the risk and impacts of tropical cyclones on banana production in the Philippines

Abstract

The Philippines is one of the world’s largest producers of banana. The Philippines is also vulnerable to climate change and tropical cyclones (TCs), which caused over 236 billion Philippine Pesos worth of losses and damages to agriculture between 1990-2013. TCs can have impacts on banana, which is sensitive to strong winds and flooding. However, banana remains under-studied in the context of food security, climate change, and variability. Here, the physical risk of banana production to TCs by characterizing the hazard, exposure, and physical sensitivity of suitable cropland to TCs. Data on TCs, banana production and prices, and the costs of damages from TCs were also analyzed to provide a picture of TC impacts. The analysis shows that there are different levels of risk to cropland from TCs, and it is higher in Luzon and Eastern Visayas which are exposed to more, and more intense TCs. Mindanao currently has a low calculated physical risk to TCs, although because of the concentration of banana production in Central and Southeastern Mindanao, there may be more exposed, and thus vulnerable, cropland. Linear statistical relationships are poor between banana production and TCs, although recent experience from Typhoons Pablo and Odette (TC Bopha and Rai, 2012 and 2021) give evidence to the significant losses and damages from TC on banana production in Mindanao. Because TCs are projected to potentially become more intense, with more variability and uncertainty from climate change, more research is needed, given the banana’s importance in the Philippines.