Forecasting the Performance of PT Pertamina’s Petrochemical Products During the Covid-19 Pandemic Era

Abstract

The industrial sector is a vital sector in economic development and growth in Indonesia. The industrial sector is also a dominating energy user. This research purposed to examine projected demand for petrochemicals after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study was a quantitative research with the exploratory and descriptive approach; spesifically using forecasting methods (Vector Autoregressive (VAR)). VAR is a multivariate forecasting model used to build a forecasting system from interrelated time series data. The results of the analysis prediction shows that the demand for petrochemicals will increase starting in 2021. The risk impact caused by COVID -19 is estimated to be more significant, with Petrochemical products are Aromatic 45%, Bitumen 45%, and Special Chemical 41%. The effect of COVID-19 in reducing the economy causes the industry to reduce the amount of production.