Historical time series prediction framework based on recurrent neural network using multivariate time series

Jun Rokui
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Abstract

In this research, I propose a method for predicting future time series using multivariate historical time series. Historical time series refers to information that varies with time, such as stock prices and economic indicators, and is distinguished from physical time series like voice. Historical time series differs from physical time series of origin in that multiple factors are structured as a spider thread-like interactions. It is not possible to link the causal relationship between these factors, and this is a major aspect that makes historical time series prediction difficult. In this research, a framework for statistically solving historical time series prediction was devised using a deep learning method and its usefulness was confirmed experimentally.
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基于多元时间序列的递归神经网络历史时间序列预测框架
在本研究中,我提出了一种利用多元历史时间序列预测未来时间序列的方法。历史时间序列指的是随时间变化的信息,如股票价格和经济指标,不同于语音等物理时间序列。历史时间序列与物理时间序列的不同之处在于,多个因素的结构像蜘蛛线一样相互作用。不可能将这些因素之间的因果关系联系起来,这是使历史时间序列预测变得困难的一个主要方面。本研究采用深度学习方法设计了一个统计求解历史时间序列预测的框架,并通过实验验证了该框架的有效性。
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