Predicting available transfer capability for power system with large wind farms based on multivariable linear regression models

Abstract

Available Transfer Capability (ATC) of power system with large farms is influenced by many factors. These factors include wind farms output, load and generators output that they are uncertain and have statistical characteristics. This paper studies the feasibility and effectiveness of prediction ATC through Multivariable Linear Regression Models (MLRM). And the system which considering transmission line thermal stability will be checked continuous flow N-l security constraints through the method of sequential Monte Carlo simulation, the Reactive Power Reserves (RPR) of power supply nodes influences on ATC will become explanatory variables as well as ATC of power system will being explained variables, then build MLRM equations to predict power system's ATC by system reactive power reserves. The improved IEEE 30-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system are the simulating examples, the results show that MLRM method can effectively predict the system's ATC and the speed of calculation is fast, also analysis and evaluates the influence of large scale wind farms to power system's ATC.