Research on Forecasting of Port Bulk Freight Volume during the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Time Series Analysis

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the collection and distribution system of ports freight has been a certain impacted. In this paper, the bulk cargo transportation volume of Guangzhou Port is taken as the research object, and the seasonal ARIMA model is applied to forecast the bulk cargo volume in 2020. The predicted result is regarded as the standard value without being impacted by the COVID-19. After comparing with the actual value in 2020, the impact index is calculated, which reveals that at different stages of this pandemic the bulk cargo transportation in Guangzhou Port has been affected in some way. In particular, during February and March 2020, because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 and Spring Festival, bulk freight volume transported by highway and railway in Guangzhou Port suffered grievously. The freight volume of coal and grain in Guangzhou Port also showed different fluctuations due to the impact of COVID-19 in 2020. In view of the impact situation of the bulk cargo transportation in Guangzhou Port, suggestions are put forward for the management of port collection and distribution in the post-pandemic era.