The Influence of russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Security Situation of the Persian Gulf Countries

Abstract

The Middle Eastern countries did not join the Western-led condemnation of russia’s aggression against Ukraine and refused to join efforts to isolate the russian federation economically. The article examines the impact of the russian-Ukrainian war on the Persian Gulf states. The stance of the Arab states regarding the ongoing conflict and the level of cooperation with its parties are highlighted. The reasons for hedging the policy of the Persian Gulf states to closer cooperation with russia and the People’s Republic of China with the simultaneous weakening of the US position are given. The authors argue that the war of russia against Ukraine may serve as a bifurcation point for the American Middle East policy. It would manifest in a tipping point when the US government shall decide that weapons cannot be sold to the Arab autocracies in cases where it would demean American values, such as the support for human rights. The consequences of the war between russia and Ukraine for the Arab monarchies and food security in the Middle East region, as well as the rise in oil prices in the world, are analysed. The Arab countries are concerned that the war has jeopardised the uninterrupted supply of agricultural products to international markets, provoking a significant jump in product prices, which in the long run may lead to unforeseen consequences. The analysis of stances of the Persian Gulf states on russian aggression is stipulated by the complexity of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the level of reception of russian propaganda and the value orientation of countries in the region. Keywords: Ukraine, the Persian Gulf, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the Middle East, russia’s aggression against Ukraine, humanitarian aid, US policy in the Middle East.