APPLICATION OF THE HOLT-WINTERS METHOD FOR FORECASTION HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS IN CITIES

Abstract

The current situation of coronavirus infection necessitates the use of models and prediction methods for decision- making in a rapidly changing situation in large cities and towns. Due to the dynamics of the processes, it is necessary to use different models and forecasting methods for the development of the situation. The city of St. Petersburg is the object of study and an analysis of hospitalisation of patients is performed. St. Petersburg was chosen as the subject of the research. The presented research was carried out within the framework of the work "Mathematical modelling of logistic systems in medicine" during the performance of diploma projects on the assignment of St. Petersburg executive authorities in 2021. In the course of the study analytical data are collected, the city districts where the situation with transportation of patients to medical organizations is likely to be difficult to predict are identified, and the methodology of forecasting hospitalization of patients by ambulance cars is considered. In solving the problem of predicting the situation, forecasting methods in the class of polynomial models are used and the effectiveness of using the Holt-Winters method is justified.