Projection of the current and future panorama of thermal comfort in Mexico: An approach from CDH to face the climate change

Abstract

This study identifies the trend in energy consumption of buildings in Mexico to achieve thermal comfort through the Hours Degree Day method (CDH). The 2,430 Mexican municipalities were analyzed with the aim of mapping behavior in buildings. The results show that more than 50% of the Mexican territory requires high air conditioning levels to achieve thermal satisfaction conditions. Additionally, the projections made considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios demonstrated that by 2100 the maximum cooling hours would be 40% higher than the current level, while the hours of operation will have a growing trend of more than 30%. The developed methodology offers a national overview of the air conditioning requirement in various predictive models under climatic and operational scenarios in the energy demand for air conditioning spaces. This work serves as a precedent in the research and design of public policies in the construction sector of buildings for the regulation of operational criteria and energy efficiency.