Structural Modelling of the Relationship between the Vulnerability of Ukrainian Regions to COVID-19, Environmental Status and Factors of Readiness of the Medical System

Abstract

The division of the regions of Ukraine into “red”, “orange”, “yellow” and “green” zones are the consequences of the differentiated regional impact of the pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus, but the reasons for such different vulnerabilities have not been clarified yet. The purpose of the study is to construct a system of regression equations containing implicit variables that are common characteristics of industries and help to analyse relationships in a complex system. The methodological tools of the study were: review of current scientific trends using VOSViewer 1.6.10, the main component method, which allows selecting the most significant factors and model with structural equations that reflect the relationship between the three areas of activity. 25 oblasts of Ukraine were selected as the object of the study, since they have different levels of vulnerability to the pandemic and can become a model for studying the regional differentiation of any country. The study presents the results of an empirical analysis of the structure of three areas of activity of the country. Modelling of structural equations to establish the relationship between the factors of vulnerability of the regions of Ukraine from the COVID-19 pandemic, the environmental state and the state of readiness of the medical system is carried out. It is theoretically substantiated that there is a direct connection between the studied areas: environmental, medical and epidemiological, and that deterioration in one industry leads to deterioration in another. The results obtained prove that it is possible to influence the differentiated course of the pandemic, but not after the event. A consistent increase in funding from the state budget for healthcare would have a greater effect, with sufficient financial support for environmental protection. The choice of state strategies must be approached comprehensively, because a narrow reform of the system, such as medical, will not give the maximum effect, without an innovative policy in the field of ecology