Unbiased Monte Carlo estimator with guaranteed confidence

L. Mendo, J. M. Hernando
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

This paper considers the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of a probability p based on inverse binomial sampling. It is shown that the confidence associated to intervals of the form [p/mu2, pmu1], mu1, mu2 > 1 has an asymptotic value as p rarr 0. Furthermore, the confidence for p isin (0, 1) arbitrary is guaranteed to exceed this asymptotic value if mu1, mu2 satisfy certain conditions. The derived conditions cover a wide range of practical situations.
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具有保证置信度的无偏蒙特卡罗估计
研究基于逆二项抽样的概率p的一致最小方差无偏估计。证明了与[p/mu2, pmu1], mu1, mu2 > 1的区间相关联的置信度的渐近值为p rarr 0。进一步,如果mu1, mu2满足一定条件,则保证任意p(0,1)的置信度超过该渐近值。导出的条件涵盖了广泛的实际情况。
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