Counting Christians in China: A Critical Reading of “A Star in the East: The Rise of Christianity in China”

C. White, 白 克瑞
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引用次数: 20

Abstract

Deciphering the number of Christians in China has been a particular fascination for Western scholars, church leaders, politicians, and journalists. Rodney Stark and Xiuhua Wang’s recent volume, A Star in the East: The Rise of Christianity in China, is the latest attempt to do just that. In addition, this slim volume (under 130 pages of text) attempts to provide a more precise demographic profile of Christians, both Protestant and Catholic, than population numbers alone reveal. The book begins with an overview of the state of religious belief in China in which Stark and Wang hope to avoid the “nonsense” offered by other authors by basing their discussion on “reliable statistics, properly interpreted” (pg. 2). The data from this initial chapter, which is actually based (over half of it verbatim) on a journal article by Stark and Eric Liu, discusses two recent surveys conducted in China in which the authors attempt to reconcile the fact that while many Chinese claim to have no religion, their actions may not support this assertion. After looking at religion in China in general, Stark and Wang focus on the state of Christianity. While a 2007 survey reports 2.5% of the population as Christian (about 30 million), the authors massage this number to suggest that there were “slightly more than 60 million” (p. 11) Christians in China at that time. Chapters two and three provide a bit of historical background on the situation of Christianity in China both before and after the founding of the PRC in 1949 and set the stage for Chapters four and five, which as the heart of the book look at factors such as education and urban or rural environments on the number of Chinese Christians. There are nuggets of novel statistical and analytical information found in these chapters. For example, survey results show that the religious revival in China is not predominantly rural, but that Christianity overall is growing among both rural and urban populations. As the authors summarize, “if there is an outbreak of religious fever in China, it is everywhere” (p. 95). Stark and Wang also provide statistics that reflect the role of family networks in rural conversions. As they aptly remark, “[i]n the most literal sense, in rural China, Christianity is a family affair” (p. 107). The authors further contend that higher education is positively correlated to being a Christian in today’s China. The sociological analysis of Chinese Christians is interesting, such as the assertion that conversion, as an act of conformity, usually follows social networks and family ties, or the refutation of the deprivation theory of conversion. However, these are the exact parts of the volume found in Stark’s other publications. It would be of interest for future scholars to apply such sociological analysis to local studies and actually show how conversion works along such lines in modern China. The final chapter offers projections of Chinese Christianity in the future and what this could mean for China. Stark and Wang predict just under 300 million Chinese Christians by 2030 and nearly double that number in 2040. The authors are more cautious in their prediction of what this growth may mean for China, but suggest it could encourage greater economic liberalization and
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中国基督徒的统计:《东方之星:基督教在中国的兴起》解读
对于西方学者、教会领袖、政治家和记者来说,破解中国基督徒的数量一直是一个特别感兴趣的问题。罗德尼·斯塔克(Rodney Stark)和王秀华(Xiuhua Wang)最近的著作《东方之星:基督教在中国的兴起》(A Star in East: the Rise of Christianity in China)就是这样做的最新尝试。此外,这本薄薄的书(不到130页的文本)试图提供更精确的基督徒人口统计资料,包括新教徒和天主教徒,而不仅仅是人口数字。这本书首先概述了中国的宗教信仰状况,斯塔克和王希望避免其他作者提供的“废话”,因为他们的讨论基于“可靠的统计数据,适当地解释”(第2页)。这一章的数据实际上(超过一半的内容)是基于斯塔克和埃里克·刘的一篇期刊文章。讨论了最近在中国进行的两项调查,其中作者试图调和这样一个事实,即尽管许多中国人声称没有宗教信仰,但他们的行为可能并不支持这一说法。在考察了中国宗教的总体情况之后,斯塔克和王将重点放在了基督教的状况上。2007年的一项调查显示,中国有2.5%的人口是基督徒(约3000万),但作者夸大了这个数字,认为当时中国的基督徒人数“略高于6000万”(第11页)。第二章和第三章提供了一些关于1949年中华人民共和国成立前后中国基督教状况的历史背景,并为第四章和第五章奠定了基础,第四章和第五章作为本书的核心,探讨了教育和城市或农村环境等因素对中国基督徒人数的影响。在这些章节中发现了一些新颖的统计和分析信息。例如,调查结果显示,中国的宗教复兴并不主要是在农村,但基督教在农村和城市人口中总体都在增长。正如作者总结的那样,“如果说中国爆发了宗教狂热,那么到处都是”(第95页)。斯塔克和王还提供了反映家庭网络在农村转变中作用的统计数据。正如他们恰当地评论的那样,“在最字面的意义上,在中国农村,基督教是一件家庭事务”(第107页)。作者进一步认为,在今天的中国,高等教育与成为基督徒正相关。对中国基督徒的社会学分析很有意思,比如认为归信是一种从众行为,通常遵循社会网络和家庭关系,或者对归信剥夺理论的反驳。然而,这些都是在斯塔克的其他出版物中发现的确切部分。未来的学者有兴趣将这种社会学分析应用于当地研究,并实际展示现代中国的转变是如何沿着这条线进行的。最后一章提供了中国基督教未来的预测,以及这对中国的意义。斯塔克和王预测,到2030年,中国的基督徒人数将接近3亿,到2040年这个数字将翻一番。对于这种增长对中国意味着什么,作者们的预测更为谨慎,但他们认为,这可能会鼓励更大程度的经济自由化和改革
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