The Winners and Losers of Brexit: A UK Manufacturing Sector Analysis

Abstract

I analyse the effect of Brexit vote on UK manufacturing divisions using a synthetic control methodology. My results show that in the three years following the Brexit referendum, the UK total manufacturing sector's employment decreased by an average of 1.7% per quarter. When investigating the impact on individual manufacturing divisions, I found that two manufacturing divisions benefited from the Brexit vote, eight manufacturing divisions were negatively affected, while six manufacturing divisions were unaffected. My results are of particular importance to policymakers who will support sectors affected as a result of the Brexit referendum.