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Voting from Abroad: Assessing the Impact of Local Turnout on Migrants' Voting behavior 海外投票:评估本地投票率对移民投票行为的影响
Pub Date : 2021-09-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3933789
Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, A. Toppeta
Over 150 countries allow expatriate citizens to vote in their country of origin. Yet, little is known about their voting behavior and how this is affected by host countries. Using unique micro-data on Chilean expatriates living in Europe, we study how the host country's turnout affects expatriates' electoral participation in the 2017 Chilean Presidential election. We focus on the 2014 European Parliament election turnout in the district of the Chilean's geocoded residence and exploit local transitory shocks to the cost of voting given by the rainfall on the day of the election. We find that migrants living in areas with higher political participation have lower engagement with their home country politics. A 1 percentage point increase in the host country's turnout decreases the electoral participation of Chilean expatriates by nearly 1 percentage point. The effects are stronger for young Chileans and those living in small communities, and in localities more welcoming to migrants. This suggests that integration into their local environment seems to play an important role on shaping political preferences.
超过150个国家允许外籍公民在其原籍国投票。然而,人们对他们的投票行为知之甚少,也不知道这是如何受到东道国的影响的。利用居住在欧洲的智利外籍人士的独特微观数据,我们研究了东道国的投票率如何影响外籍人士在2017年智利总统选举中的选举参与。我们关注的是2014年欧洲议会选举在智利地理编码居住地的投票率,并利用选举当天降雨对当地投票成本的短暂冲击。我们发现,生活在政治参与度较高地区的移民对本国政治的参与度较低。东道国的投票率每增加1个百分点,智利侨民的投票率就会减少近1个百分点。这种影响对智利的年轻人和那些生活在小社区的人,以及那些更欢迎移民的地方的人来说更强烈。这表明,融入当地环境似乎在塑造政治偏好方面起着重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
The Eurozone: From the Concept of Financial Stability to the Reality of Deficits and Debts 欧元区:从金融稳定的概念到赤字和债务的现实
Pub Date : 2021-08-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3912862
Vasil Gechev
The eurozone was created with the goal of economic convergence between its members. The Maastricht Treaty defined four convergence criteria – price stability, sound government finances, durability of convergence (measured by the long-term interest rate), and exchange rate stability. This paper analyses the developments during the 1999-2020 period in the field of sound government finances, as it is the only convergence criterion which continued to apply after eurozone membership and is by far the most important element of financial stability in the eurozone. According to the Maastricht framework, eurozone members are supposed to keep their annual budget deficits within 3% of GDP and their total government debt below 60% of GDP. In practice, the budget deficit threshold has been frequently exceeded – even by the largest economies in the eurozone – and as a consequence nowadays only a minority of eurozone members have government debt levels below 60% of GDP. It would not be an exaggeration to suggest that the financial framework of the Maastricht Treaty has been severely compromised: in 2020, the debt levels of nearly 1/3 of the euro area countries were well over 100% of GDP – even reaching 155.8% in the case of Italy, and 205.6% in the case of Greece.
建立欧元区的目标是实现成员国之间的经济融合。《马斯特里赫特条约》定义了四个趋同标准——价格稳定、健全的政府财政、趋同的持久性(以长期利率衡量)和汇率稳定。本文分析了1999-2020年期间在健全政府财政领域的发展,因为它是欧元区成员国加入后唯一继续适用的收敛标准,也是迄今为止欧元区金融稳定最重要的因素。根据《马斯特里赫特框架》,欧元区成员国应将年度预算赤字控制在GDP的3%以内,政府债务总额低于GDP的60%。在实践中,预算赤字门槛经常被超过——即使是欧元区最大的经济体也是如此——因此,如今只有少数欧元区成员国的政府债务水平低于GDP的60%。毫不夸张地说,《马斯特里赫特条约》(Maastricht Treaty)的金融框架已经受到严重损害:2020年,近三分之一的欧元区国家的债务水平远远超过了GDP的100%——意大利甚至达到了155.8%,希腊达到了205.6%。
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引用次数: 0
Court Productivity and Trade-off between Judicial Speed and Verdict Length: Evidence from the Court of Justice of the European Union} 法院生产力与审判速度与判决长度之间的权衡:来自欧盟法院的证据
Pub Date : 2021-08-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3451889
Timothy Yu-Cheong Yeung, M. Ovádek, Nicolas Lampach
Drawing on neoclassical consumer choice theory, we design a model to study court performance in which a judge is facing a trade-off between judicial speed (time to decision) and verdict length (number of words) given a resource constraint. The model has two main implications. First, the trade-off can be interpreted as the rate of technical transformation that is taken as a measure of court productivity. A low transformation rate from time to verdict implies poor judge or court productivity. We study the evolution of the rate using data of the Court of Justice of the European Union from 1959 to 2017, and suggest that the estimate rate is a good measure of the court performance and indicates a need for court reform. Second, the model predicts that growing backlog of cases reduces either speed, length, or both, and the rise in resources improves either one or both of them. To deal with the simultaneous determination of speed, length, backlog and resources, we employ panel vector autoregression to allow court performance (speed and length), backlog and expenditure to be endogenously determined. We find that backlog impacts judicial speed negatively while expenditure has a positive impact on verdict length in the medium to long run.
根据新古典消费者选择理论,我们设计了一个模型来研究法院的表现,在这个模型中,法官在资源约束下面临司法速度(判决时间)和判决长度(字数)之间的权衡。该模型有两个主要含义。首先,这种权衡可以被解释为作为法院生产力衡量标准的技术改造率。从时间到判决的转换率低意味着法官或法院生产力低下。我们利用欧盟法院1959年至2017年的数据研究了该比率的演变,并提出估计比率是衡量法院绩效的良好指标,表明法院需要改革。其次,该模型预测,积压案件的增加要么降低了速度,要么降低了时间,要么两者兼而有之,而资源的增加要么改善了其中之一,要么改善了两者。为了处理速度、长度、积压和资源的同时确定,我们采用面板向量自回归来允许法院绩效(速度和长度)、积压和支出内生决定。研究发现,从中长期来看,积压对审判速度有负向影响,而支出对判决长度有正向影响。
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引用次数: 0
Set in Stone? Conflict and Continuity Over the European Union’s Measurement of Government Debt 石沉大海?欧盟政府债务计量的冲突与连续性
Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3924608
Jessica de Vlieger, Tobias Tesche
The Maastricht definition of government debt constitutes a central pillar of the European fiscal governance architecture. When EU member states agreed on the definition as part of the euro convergence criteria, they took a narrow approach to debt. The 2008 financial crisis and later the euro area crisis forced governments to engage in large debtincreasing bank bailouts, revealing gaps in the debt definition. Growing dissatisfaction with the outdated Maastricht indicators opened a window of opportunity for reform but the debt definition remained unchanged. We explain this puzzling indicator inertia by drawing on historical institutionalism. Examining the conflictual history of the EU’s debt measure, we show how the revision of the debt definition failed precisely due to its political charge and centrality in the EU fiscal surveillance framework. It also demonstrates that this path dependence enabled the European Commission to establish new fiscal sustainability indicators accounting for the implicit liabilities not captured by the narrow debt definition.
《马斯特里赫特条约》对政府债务的定义构成了欧洲财政治理架构的核心支柱。当欧盟成员国同意将这一定义作为欧元趋同标准的一部分时,他们对债务采取了狭隘的态度。2008年的金融危机和后来的欧元区危机迫使政府参与大规模债务增加的银行救助,暴露了债务定义的差距。对过时的马斯特里赫特指标日益增长的不满为改革打开了一扇机会之窗,但债务定义仍未改变。我们通过借鉴历史制度主义来解释这种令人费解的指标惯性。考察欧盟债务措施的冲突历史,我们展示了债务定义的修订是如何失败的,正是由于其在欧盟财政监督框架中的政治责任和中心地位。它还表明,这种路径依赖使欧盟委员会能够建立新的财政可持续性指标,以反映狭义债务定义未涵盖的隐性负债。
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引用次数: 0
Capital Reallocation and Firm-Level Productivity Under Political Uncertainty 政治不确定性下的资本再配置与企业生产率
Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3875672
Daniel Tut, Melanie Cao
Does policy uncertainty affect productivity? Policy uncertainty creates delays as firms await new information about prices, costs and other market conditions before committing resources. Such delays can have real consequences on firms’ productivity and corporate decisions. First, we find that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on firm-level productivity. Second, debt magnifies the adverse effects of policy uncertainty on productivity, but access to external financing during periods of significant policy uncertainty shocks has a positive impact on firm-level productivity. Third, Policy uncertainty is positively related to cash holdings but this effect is mostly driven by highly productive firms and by firms with higher levels of irreversible investments since these firms face higher opportunity costs in future states. The three findings are robust to various specifications and provide an affirmative answer to the opening question.
政策不确定性会影响生产率吗?政策的不确定性导致企业在投入资源前等待有关价格、成本和其他市场状况的新信息,从而造成拖延。这种延迟会对公司的生产力和公司决策产生实际影响。首先,我们发现经济政策的不确定性对企业层面的生产率有负面影响。其次,债务放大了政策不确定性对生产率的不利影响,但在重大政策不确定性冲击期间获得外部融资对企业层面的生产率有积极影响。第三,政策不确定性与现金持有量呈正相关,但这种影响主要是由高生产率企业和具有更高水平不可逆转投资的企业驱动的,因为这些企业在未来的状态下面临更高的机会成本。这三个发现对各种规格都是可靠的,并为开头的问题提供了肯定的答案。
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引用次数: 1
Early Retirement Provision for Elderly Displaced Workers 高龄失业工人提早退休安排
Pub Date : 2021-06-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3910440
Herman Kruse, Andreas Myhre
This paper studies the economic effects on re-employment and program substitution behavior among elderly displaced workers who exogenously lose eligibility for their early retirement option. We use detailed Norwegian matched employer-employee data containing information on bankruptcy dates and individual-level wealth, income, pensions and social security benefits. Our empirical strategy employs a regression discontinuity design, as job displacement before a certain age cut-off results in losing eligibility for early retirement benefits between ages 62–67 years in Norway. We find that reemployment rates are indistinguishable between workers who just retain eligibility for early retirement benefits and those who just do not. Meanwhile, those who lose eligibility offset 69% of their lost benefits through take-up of other social security benefits, where 51% comes from disability insurance and 13% from unemployment insurance. Our findings are particularly policy relevant as tightening of age-limits for old-age pensions is on the agenda in several OECD countries, while current economic hardship throughout the region may lead to increased job displacement for elderly workers.
本文研究外源性丧失提前退休资格的老年失业工人再就业和项目替代行为的经济效应。我们使用详细的挪威匹配雇主-雇员数据,其中包含破产日期和个人财富、收入、养老金和社会保障福利等信息。我们的实证策略采用了回归不连续设计,因为在挪威,在某个年龄截止之前的工作转移导致62-67岁之间失去提前退休福利的资格。我们发现,在保留提前退休福利资格的工人和没有提前退休福利资格的工人之间,再就业率是无法区分的。与此同时,那些失去资格的人通过其他社会保障福利抵消了69%的损失,其中51%来自残疾保险,13%来自失业保险。我们的研究结果尤其具有政策相关性,因为收紧养老金的年龄限制已提上几个经合组织国家的议程,而当前整个地区的经济困难可能导致老年工人失业人数增加。
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引用次数: 0
Társasági adóalap-, és adókedvezmények az állami támogatások rendszerében (Tax Incentives as State Aid)
Pub Date : 2021-02-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3779332
Gabriella Erdős
Hungarian Abstract: Jelen dolgozat arra a kérdésre keres választ, hogy a társasági adó törvényben leírt feltételeknek megfelelő adóalap- és adókedvezmények igénybevételét mennyiben korlátozzák az uniós állami támogatás szabályok. A dolgozat első részében áttekintjük az állami támogatások fogalmát és rendszerét, a második részében pedig a főbb társasági adóalap-, és adókedvezményeket csoportosítjuk az állami támogatások szabályai mentén. Az egyéb adóintézkedések, illetve a bírósági eljárás során állami támogatásnak minősített adóintézkedések a jelen dolgozat keretein kívül esnek

English Abstract: The paper investigates whether and how much the utilization of taxable base incentives and tax credits granted by the corporate income tax law is limited by the state aid nature of the tax measures. The first part of the essay describes the most important attributes of state aid, and the European Union state aid system. In the second part corporate tax base incentives and tax credits will be explained from the point of their state aid character. Other tax measures and state aid related tax cases fall outside the scope of this paper.
匈牙利摘要:本文试图回答这样一个问题:符合《公司税法》条件的税基和税收减免的使用在多大程度上受到欧盟国家援助规则的限制。本文第一部分回顾了国家援助的概念和体系,第二部分根据国家援助规则对主要的公司税基和税收减免措施进行了分组。其他税收措施以及在法庭诉讼中被归类为国家援助的税收措施不在本文讨论范围之内 摘要:本文研究了企业所得税法所给予的税基优惠和税收减免的利用是否以及在多大程度上受到税收措施的国家援助性质的限制。 本文第一部分介绍了国家援助最重要的属性以及欧盟的国家援助制度。第二部分将从国家援助的角度解释企业税基奖励和税收抵免。其他税收措施和与国家援助相关的税收案例不在本文讨论范围之内。
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引用次数: 0
The Winners and Losers of Brexit: A UK Manufacturing Sector Analysis 英国脱欧的赢家和输家:英国制造业分析
Pub Date : 2021-01-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3765122
M. Farid
I analyse the effect of Brexit vote on UK manufacturing divisions using a synthetic control methodology. My results show that in the three years following the Brexit referendum, the UK total manufacturing sector's employment decreased by an average of 1.7% per quarter. When investigating the impact on individual manufacturing divisions, I found that two manufacturing divisions benefited from the Brexit vote, eight manufacturing divisions were negatively affected, while six manufacturing divisions were unaffected. My results are of particular importance to policymakers who will support sectors affected as a result of the Brexit referendum.
我用一种综合控制方法分析了脱欧公投对英国制造业部门的影响。我的研究结果显示,在英国脱欧公投后的三年里,英国制造业的总就业人数平均每季度下降1.7%。在调查对单个制造部门的影响时,我发现两个制造部门受益于英国脱欧投票,八个制造部门受到负面影响,而六个制造部门未受影响。我的研究结果对政策制定者尤其重要,他们将支持受英国退欧公投影响的行业。
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引用次数: 0
Subsidies or Tax Breaks Versus Intellectual Property Rights: Dual Markets 补贴或税收减免与知识产权:双重市场
Pub Date : 2021-01-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3849951
Egle Skliaustyte, Matthias Weber
Intellectual property rights are monopoly rights, which have undesirable welfare properties. Therefore, several studies suggest to use rewards as incentives for innovation instead. However, these studies have thus far had little effect on actual policy, possibly because such rewards may be difficult to implement in practice. We suggest a way of providing incentives to originators that is easy to implement. This is possible if there is an additional market in which the originator operates, where copying is not easily possible. Taking the music industry as example, copyrights in the records market could be replaced by subsidies or tax breaks in the market for live performances. We provide a modeling framework that can be used to analyze in which cases the replacement of intellectual property rights in one market with subsidies in another market is welfare improving or even pareto efficient.
知识产权是垄断性权利,具有不良的福利属性。因此,一些研究建议用奖励来激励创新。然而,这些研究迄今对实际政策影响不大,可能是因为这些奖励在实践中可能难以执行。我们提出了一种易于实施的激励原创者的方法。这是可能的,如果有一个额外的市场,其中原作者经营,复制是不容易的。以音乐行业为例,唱片市场的版权可以被现场演出市场的补贴或税收减免所取代。我们提供了一个建模框架,可以用来分析在哪些情况下,在一个市场中用补贴取代另一个市场中的知识产权会改善福利,甚至是帕累托效率。
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引用次数: 1
Governance Fiscale E Sostenibilità Del Debito Pubblico (The Sustainability of Public Debt in the European Union) 欧盟公共债务的可持续性
Pub Date : 2020-12-18 DOI: 10.13133/2037-3651_73.292_6
Bianca Giannini, C. Oldani
L’indebitamento e la sua sostenibilita sono elementi cruciali per determinare la solidita delle finanze pubbliche, ma la risposta alla domanda “quanto debito dovrebbe emettere il settore dell’amministrazione pubblica” non e univoca. La sostenibilita del debito e un obiettivo primario nel processo di integrazione europea e Sylos Labini nel “Manifesto” evidenziava le conseguenze di un debito pubblico elevato. Il forte legame tra il problema della sostenibilita del debito e la necessita di stimolare la domanda, oltre che l’offerta, per evitare il diffondersi di disoccupazione e disuguaglianze rimane di estrema attualita. Un aspetto rilevante delle azioni correttive intraprese dai governi e il livellamento dei costi finanziari del debito e lo spostamento di parte del debito in avanti, attraverso l’utilizzo di strumenti finanziari derivati, come gli swap. Con il presente contributo, colmiamo la lacuna nel dibattito di policy, muovendo dal contributo al tema della sostenibilita del debito di Sylos Labini per attualizzarlo alle sfide poste dalla finanziarizzazione. Debt and its sustainability are crucial elements in determining the soundness of public finances, but the answer to the question “how much debt should the public administration sector issue” is not unique. Debt sustainability is a primary objective in the European integration process and Sylos Labini in the “Manifesto” highlighted the consequences of high public debt. The strong link between the problem of debt sustainability and the need to stimulate demand, as well as supply, to avoid the spread of unemployment and inequality remains extremely topical. An important aspect of the corrective actions taken by governments is the leveling of financial costs of debt and the shifting of part of the debt forward, through the use of financial derivative instruments, such as swaps. With this contribution, we fill the gap in the policy debate, moving from Sylos Labini’s contribution to the theme of debt sustainability to actualize it to the challenges posed by financialization. JEL codes: E612, G23, H63
债务及其可持续性是决定公共财政稳健的关键因素,但“政府部门应发行多少债务”问题的答案并不明确。债务的可持续性是欧洲一体化进程的一个主要目标,西洛斯·拉比尼在《宣言》中强调了高水平公共债务的后果。债务可持续性问题与刺激需求和供应以防止失业和不平等蔓延的需要之间的密切联系仍然十分重要。政府采取的纠正行动的一个重要方面是,通过使用掉期等衍生工具,降低债务的财务成本,并将部分债务转移到未来。有了这一贡献,我们正在缩小政策辩论中的差距,从对西洛斯•拉比尼(Sylos Labini)债务可持续性问题的贡献开始,使其适应金融化带来的挑战。债务及其可持续性是决定公共财政声音的关键因素,但“公共行政部门问题应该如何负担得起”这个问题的答案并不独特。《宣言》强调了高公共债务的后果。债务可持续性问题和刺激需求的需要之间的牢固联系,就像供应一样,取决于失业和不平等的严重程度。政府采取的纠正行动的一个重要方面是债务的财务成本的杠杆,以及通过使用衍生品工具来转移未来债务的一部分,就像互换一样。有了这一贡献,我们填补了政策辩论中的差距,从Sylos labini对债务可持续性问题的贡献,通过融资将其转化为挑战。E612 G23 H63
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引用次数: 0
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European Economics: Political Economy & Public Economics eJournal
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