Short-term load forecasting method based on deep learning under digital driving

Guojun Xiong, Meng Zhu, Hong Fan, Haoran Hu, Zheng Cheng
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Abstract

Relying on the background of power grid digital drive, this paper uses the improved deep learning network model to analyze and predict the load energy consumption of complex systems. In order to provide a complete and reliable sample data set for the multi-layer network model, this paper uses normalization, mutual information and other methods to preprocess the data set, reduce the correlation among different data; At the same time, based on the error reciprocal method, the bidirectional long and short term memory network is combined with the XGboost network model to reduce the calculation error of the model. The simulation experiment is used the actual data set of a city in southern China. The result proves that the index MAPE of the Bi LSTM XGboost forecasting method is 6.15, which can realize the accurate load forecasting of the actual complex system.
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数字驾驶下基于深度学习的短期负荷预测方法
本文以电网数字化驱动为背景,采用改进的深度学习网络模型对复杂系统的负荷能耗进行分析和预测。为了给多层网络模型提供完整可靠的样本数据集,本文采用归一化、互信息等方法对数据集进行预处理,降低不同数据之间的相关性;同时,基于误差倒数法,将双向长短期记忆网络与XGboost网络模型相结合,减小了模型的计算误差。模拟实验采用了中国南方某市的实际数据集。结果证明,bilstm XGboost预测方法的MAPE指数为6.15,能够实现对实际复杂系统的准确负荷预测。
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