Modelling the diffusion of manual irrigation pumps in lower income countries with the Bass model

Abstract

The Bass model is a popular tool for modelling the diffusion of a new product targeted for consumers in economies above the poverty line. In this paper, the authors show that the Bass model is also appropriately used to model sales of products to consumers at the base of the economic pyramid. Specifically, the authors consider data from the sales of manual irrigation pumps (MIPs) to lower income consumers in Bangladesh, Tanzania, and Kenya. Fitting the cumulative sales data for MIPs in these economies with the Bass model provides insight about the market potential of MIPs as well as effective marketing strategies in these economies and supports the use of the Bass model to describe product sales to base of the pyramid consumers.