Prediction and Decision-Making Algorithms in System Monitoring of Forest Lands

Abstract

The methods of forecasting are considered: expert estimates, analogies, extrapolations and analytical (models). The experts' poll is used when forecasting the use of forest plots on the lands of populated areas. The method of analogy is most widely used in the evaluation of medium-forming functions. The method based on extrapolation is widely used in the practice of forest management. These methods are “naive”. The forecast by models allows to “penetrate” the internal mechanism of ecosystems of forest lands, using established cause-effect relationships. The results of forecasting based on analytical models of annual runoff in forest-covered watersheds under different scenarios of forest management are presented. Algorithms of decision-making in the sphere of land relations on forest lands are considered; stages of forecasting: research, program and organizational.