Iran: The Trump Factor

Abstract

The relationship between Iran and the United States is adversarial because of nuclear weapons related issues. Trump has warned Iran, “You can't have nuclear weapons. And if you want to talk about it, good. Otherwise, you can live in a shattered economy for a long time to come.” While Trump is willing to negotiate with Iran, he wants to do it under a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran that includes “We’ll only give you sanctions relief after you’ve compromised.” Iran’s policy is to resist it all the way: It will not talk until sanctions are lifted. It is not at all clear how this impasse can be overcome without a bitter war. In theory, at least, in such a war, Iran can be obliterated, the Middle East put in a complete state of chaos, the global economy put into a tail spin, China’s economy destroyed, North Korea shattered, and Russia put in a state of limbo, while the US comes out relatively unscathed but isolated. Both the US and Iran are playing for very high stakes.