Population Prediction in China Based on Lasso-FGM Model

Abstract

According to the relevant data queried by China Statistical Yearbook, we can see that China’s population has been declining in recent years. In order to better grasp the trend of population development, this paper comprehensively considers the factors affecting the number of China’s population, uses Lars and Glmnet to screen variables based on Lasso model, and determines the main factors affecting the number of China’s population screened by Lars Lasso model by comparing the results and searching relevant literature. Further, this paper introduces multivariate fractional order grey model to predict the population of China, 2005-2017 under different order forecast error is determine the differential order number, 2018-2020 data in model verification, improve the model accuracy, in order to predict the future ten years, the population of predicted results found that by 2030, The total population of China will fall to 1,348,3740 million, which is a certain gap from the number predicted by the national population planning policy. In order to achieve the expected size of the national population planning policy, the future population development should focus on how to effectively increase the fertility rate and improve the birth policy, so as to increase the number of China’s population.