Research on Movie Box Office Prediction Model with AHP Method

Abstract

Based on the Chinese film market, the author analyzes movie box office factors from deferent ways combining with the big data of social media and search index, and use expert survey and Delphi Method to establish the predict indicators system and movie offce box including actors, director, screenwriter, Investment, type, awards, publicity, reputation, publisher, schedule and distribution Mode. And then use AHP method to establish the movie box office prediction model, in combination with the actual data of the film market (from 2012 through 2016 in China) along with the empirical analysis and verification to provide valuable investment reference for film's risk control and movie investment decisions.