A Simple Model for a Complex Issue

Abstract

System dynamics models can facilitate the understanding of complex and dynamic biomedical systems such as in HIV/AIDS. Untangling the dynamics among various population stocks (e.g., susceptible population, infected population, HIV population, AIDS population) can be used to investigate the effective points of interventions in the HIV/AIDS cycle. With that in mind, the authors have developed a system dynamics model that can be used to examine various policy decisions for the prevention and the treatment of HIV/AIDS. The specific objectives of their study was to examine the growing number of AIDS-related deaths in Canada. They used the authors’ dynamic simulation model to evaluate the impact of various HIV/AIDS policy intervention scenarios centred on the reduction of the number of AIDS deaths in Canada. Their analysis suggests that more lives will be saved if effective preventive and treatment programs are implemented simultaneously. A simultaneous implementation of these programs will also result in a much smaller HIV-infected and AIDS populations.