MODELING AND FORECASTING OF THE EFFICIENCY OF ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES

Abstract

In the article, based on the content analysis of theoretical approaches to determining the efficiency category of the enterprise, the directions of the development of the theory of efficiency are visualized according to the time vector of scientific evolution. Taking into account the scientific works and theoretical views of various researchers, it is justified that for the formation of the author's definition of the efficiency of the enterprise, it is advisable to integrate the existing approaches to the essence of efficiency. On the basis of a comparative analysis of literary sources, the essential characteristics of "management of the efficiency of the enterprise" were determined. Conceptual principles were formed and a management system for the efficiency of the electric power industry enterprise was developed. One of the blocks of the company's efficiency management system is a model toolkit that will allow forecasting the level of efficiency. It is recommended to implement the model toolkit of integrated assessment of the enterprise's performance through the algorithm of the classic version of the taxonomic indicator construction in the following stages: standardization of indicator values, formation of a benchmark and calculation of a general indicator. The algorithm of the model toolkit was implemented according to the data of the enterprise of the electric power industry – JSC Khmelnytskoblenergo in the MS Excel software environment. A comparative analysis of the initial trend line of the enterprise's activity efficiency and the line of its forecast was carried out using the model toolkit. The results of the calculation of the forecast values of the performance indicator of the electric power industry enterprise and the upper and lower limits of the confidence intervals for the forecast period are presented.