CHANDRAN S., SELVAN P., NAMITHA M. R., PRADEEP MISHRA, KUMAR V.
{"title":"Probability analysis and rainfall forecasting using ARIMA model","authors":"CHANDRAN S., SELVAN P., NAMITHA M. R., PRADEEP MISHRA, KUMAR V.","doi":"10.54302/mausam.v74i4.805","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"A 34-year rainfall data from 1976 to 2009 of ten sub-basins of the Vaigai River in Tamil Nadu were collected and analysed statistically using various probability distribution functions. The best-fit probability distributions for the annual, monthly and seasonal rainfall for the study area were found using two goodness-of-fit tests. The Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting the study area's annual rainfall. The best ARIMA models were selected for each sub-basin and the average annual precipitation for 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025 has been forecasted. The forecasted result compared well with observed dataup to 2020, which indicates the appropriateness of the model.","PeriodicalId":18363,"journal":{"name":"MAUSAM","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"MAUSAM","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v74i4.805","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
A 34-year rainfall data from 1976 to 2009 of ten sub-basins of the Vaigai River in Tamil Nadu were collected and analysed statistically using various probability distribution functions. The best-fit probability distributions for the annual, monthly and seasonal rainfall for the study area were found using two goodness-of-fit tests. The Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting the study area's annual rainfall. The best ARIMA models were selected for each sub-basin and the average annual precipitation for 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025 has been forecasted. The forecasted result compared well with observed dataup to 2020, which indicates the appropriateness of the model.
期刊介绍：
MAUSAM (Formerly Indian Journal of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics), established in January 1950, is the quarterly research
journal brought out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). MAUSAM is a medium for publication of original scientific
research work. MAUSAM is a premier scientific research journal published in this part of the world in the fields of Meteorology,
Hydrology & Geophysics. The four issues appear in January, April, July & October.
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