Assessment and Forecasting of the Military, Economic and Demographic Impact of the Russian–Ukrainian War on the National Economy of Russia

Abstract

At the moment, the first phase of the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, which began in February 2022, is reaching its logical end: A certain front line has already been established and the economic state in which the countries are is becoming clearer. That is why the evaluation and forecasting of the military, economic and demographic impact of the war on other countries become relevant. This work examines what losses Russia received due to its actions. In the article, the authors examine the issue of the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Russian economy, as well as a retrospective forecast of the impact of Russia’s military operations on its national economy. Attention is focused on military and demographic aspects, as well as on the results of the impact of various types of sanctions. The main method that was used in the work can be considered modelling; however, in addition to it, analysis, historical method, graphic and others were also used. The practical results of the analysis showed that the government of the Russian Federation announced the transition to a command mobilisation economy, and today its first consequences are already visible in the form of rising prices and devaluation of the national currency. In addition, it was shown that despite the large number of sanctions imposed on Russia, the country has not yet felt the full consequences. The issue of how the defence economy of the Russian Federation is developing, how the military budget of Russia has changed over the past 11 years, and how the war in Ukraine affected the demographic situation has been examined. In the section on the impact of the war on the economy of the Russian Federation, it is shown that modernised production and industries will suffer the most from such actions, which will lead to a powerful technological lag. The article brings new knowledge for understanding the current functioning of the Russian economy and in the near future, as well as for making assessments of the possible future course of the war. JEL: H56, N4, J11, R11