The real side of stock market exuberance: bubbles, output and productivity at the industry level

IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Economica Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI:10.1111/ecca.12503
Francisco Queirós
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

There has been a growing interest in the theory of rational bubbles. Recent theories predict that bubbles are expansionary, but differ in the underlying mechanisms. This paper provides empirical evidence that helps us to assess different theories, and documents four main findings: stock market overvaluation is associated with (i) faster output and input growth, (ii) declining total factor productivity (TFP) growth, (iii) a greater contribution of labour and a declining contribution of TFP for output growth, (iv) an increase in the number of firms. Overall, these findings suggest that bubbly expansions are driven by increased factor accumulation (in particular labour), and not from higher productivity growth.

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股市繁荣的真实一面:行业层面的泡沫、产出和生产率
人们对理性泡沫理论的兴趣与日俱增。最近的理论预测泡沫是扩张性的,但内在机制却各不相同。本文提供了经验证据,帮助我们评估不同的理论,并记录了四个主要发现:股市估值过高与以下因素相关:(i) 产出和投入增长更快;(ii) 全要素生产率(TFP)增长下降;(iii) 劳动力对产出增长的贡献更大,而全要素生产率对产出增长的贡献下降;(iv) 企业数量增加。总体而言,这些研究结果表明,泡沫式扩张是由要素积累(尤其是劳动力)的增加而非生产率的提高所驱动的。
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来源期刊
Economica
Economica ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
49
审稿时长
5 weeks
期刊介绍: Economica is an international journal devoted to research in all branches of economics. Theoretical and empirical articles are welcome from all parts of the international research community. Economica is a leading economics journal, appearing high in the published citation rankings. In addition to the main papers which make up each issue, there is an extensive review section, covering a wide range of recently published titles at all levels.
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