{"title":"The real side of stock market exuberance: bubbles, output and productivity at the industry level","authors":"Francisco Queirós","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12503","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>There has been a growing interest in the theory of rational bubbles. Recent theories predict that bubbles are expansionary, but differ in the underlying mechanisms. This paper provides empirical evidence that helps us to assess different theories, and documents four main findings: stock market overvaluation is associated with (i) faster output and input growth, (ii) declining total factor productivity (TFP) growth, (iii) a greater contribution of labour and a declining contribution of TFP for output growth, (iv) an increase in the number of firms. Overall, these findings suggest that bubbly expansions are driven by increased factor accumulation (in particular labour), and not from higher productivity growth.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"91 361","pages":"268-291"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecca.12503","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economica","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecca.12503","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
There has been a growing interest in the theory of rational bubbles. Recent theories predict that bubbles are expansionary, but differ in the underlying mechanisms. This paper provides empirical evidence that helps us to assess different theories, and documents four main findings: stock market overvaluation is associated with (i) faster output and input growth, (ii) declining total factor productivity (TFP) growth, (iii) a greater contribution of labour and a declining contribution of TFP for output growth, (iv) an increase in the number of firms. Overall, these findings suggest that bubbly expansions are driven by increased factor accumulation (in particular labour), and not from higher productivity growth.
期刊介绍:
Economica is an international journal devoted to research in all branches of economics. Theoretical and empirical articles are welcome from all parts of the international research community. Economica is a leading economics journal, appearing high in the published citation rankings. In addition to the main papers which make up each issue, there is an extensive review section, covering a wide range of recently published titles at all levels.