30×30 for Climate: The History and Future of Climate Change–Integrated Conservation Strategies

Abstract

Global agreement on 30×30 means an unprecedented last push to define how much nature will be left on the planet. At the same time that space for nature is being defined, climate change will be moving nature around. Species are now on the move to track climate change both on land and in the oceans, a process that is accelerating under dramatic new extreme events. This is an opportune time to review conservation recommendations made early in the millennium, to see how many have been taken on board over the past 20 years, and how much is left to be done to adapt to climate change as conservation pushes toward 30×30. The history of Climate Change–Integrated Conservation Strategies begins with two papers published by a group of prominent climate change biologists in 2002. The importance of including adaptation to climate change in conservation was underscored by the first estimates of extinction risk due to climate change in 2004. Subsequent literature has developed concepts such as velocity of climate change and assisted migration. Regional modeling of biodiversity change, expanding protected areas to facilitate species range movements, and managing productive landscapes to facilitate species movements are all now considered “business as usual” for conservation planning for climate change. Regional coordination of conservation efforts to ensure that species on the move are managed for climate change consistently across their range, on the other hand, is under-represented in literature and practice. Improving both theory and practice of regional coordination for climate change is an important priority for conservation now and in the future. Conservation for climate change has focused mostly on warming scenarios, but failure to act on climate change emissions reduction means that meeting Paris Agreement targets will almost certainly have to include both warming past those targets and subsequent cooling back to the target. Managing this double transition is a second critical point of emphasis for climate change biology as the world moves to 30×30.