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Associations of ambient exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene with daily mortality: a multicountry time-series study in 757 global locations. 环境暴露于苯、甲苯、乙苯和二甲苯与每日死亡率的关系:全球757个地点的多国时间序列研究。
IF 16 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-111523-102139
Lu Zhou, Ying Xiong, Francesco Sera, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Rosana Abrutzky, Yuming Guo, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Samuel Osorio, Dominic Roye, Jan Kyselý, Hans Orru, Marek Maasikmets, Jouni Jk Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Veronika Huber, Susanne Breitner-Busch, Alexandra Schneider, Klea Katsouyanni, Evangelia Samoli, Alireza Entezari, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Raanan Raz, Matteo Scortichini, Massimo Stafoggia, Yasushi Honda, Masahiro Hashizume, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Barrak Alahmad, Magali Hurtado Diaz, Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano, Ala Overcenco, Jochem Klompmaker, Shilpa Rao, Gabriel Carrasco, Xerxes Seposo, Paul Lester Carlos Chua, Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva, Joana Madureira, Iulian-Horia Holobaca, Noah Scovronick, Rebecca M Garland, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Martina S Ragettli, Yue Leon Guo, Shih-Chun Pan, Shanshan Li, Pierre Masselot, Valentina Colistro, Michelle Bell, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Antonio Gasparrini, Yaoxian Huang, Haidong Kan
<p><strong>Background: </strong>The presence of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene isomers (BTEX) in the environment is of increasing concern due to their toxicity and ubiquity. Although the adverse health effects of BTEX exposure have been documented, robust epidemiological evidence from large-scale, multicountry studies using advanced exposure assessment methodologies remains scarce. We aimed to assess the association of short-term ambient exposure to individual BTEX components and their mixture with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Daily data on mortality, meteorological factors, and air pollution were collected from 757 locations across 46 countries or regions. Data on individual chemicals (ie, benzene, toluene, xylenes [summation of ethylbenzene, m-xylene, p-xylene, and o-xylene]) and the aggregate mixture (ie, BTEX) were estimated using a chemistry-climate model. We examined the short-term associations of each individual chemical as well as the BTEX mixture with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in a multicountry framework. Using a two-stage time-series design, we first applied generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution to obtain location-specific associations, which were subsequently pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Two-pollutant models were used to assess the independent effects of BTEX after adjusting for co-pollutants (PM<sub>2⋅5</sub>, PM<sub>10</sub>, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Additionally, we assessed the overall exposure-response curves with spline terms.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>An IQR increment of BTEX concentration on lag 0-2 days (3-day moving average of the present day and the previous 2 days) was associated with increases of 0⋅57% (95% CI 0⋅49-0⋅65), 0⋅42% (0⋅30-0⋅54), and 0⋅68% (0⋅50-0⋅86) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The corresponding effect estimates for an IQR increment in individual chemicals (benzene, toluene, and xylenes) were 0⋅38-0⋅61%, 0⋅44-0⋅70%, and 0⋅41-0⋅65%, respectively. The associations remained significant after adjusting for co-pollutants, with a general decline in magnitude, except for a slight increase after adjustment for ozone. The shape of the exposure-response curves for all pollutants and causes of death was almost linear, with steeper slopes at low concentrations and no discernible thresholds.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>This global study provides novel evidence linking short-term exposure to ambient BTEX, both individually and as a mixture, with increased daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings underscore the need for comprehensive air pollution mitigation policies, including stringent controls on BTEX emissions, to protect public health.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project,
背景:由于苯、甲苯、乙苯和二甲苯异构体(BTEX)的毒性和普遍性,它们在环境中的存在越来越受到关注。尽管已有文献记录了接触苯二甲酸乙酯对健康的不良影响,但采用先进接触评估方法进行的大规模多国研究得出的强有力的流行病学证据仍然很少。我们的目的是评估短期环境暴露于单个BTEX成分及其混合物与全球范围内每日总死亡率、心血管死亡率和呼吸死亡率的关系。方法:从46个国家或地区的757个地点收集有关死亡率、气象因素和空气污染的日常数据。使用化学-气候模型估计了单个化学物质(即苯、甲苯、二甲苯[乙苯、间二甲苯、对二甲苯和邻二甲苯的总和])和聚合混合物(即BTEX)的数据。我们在多国框架内研究了每种单独化学物质以及BTEX混合物与每日总死亡率、心血管死亡率和呼吸死亡率的短期关联。采用两阶段时间序列设计,我们首先应用具有准泊松分布的广义加性模型来获得特定地点的关联,随后使用随机效应荟萃分析进行汇总。采用双污染物模型,对共污染物(PM2·5、PM10、二氧化氮、二氧化硫、臭氧和一氧化碳)进行校正后,评估BTEX的独立效应。此外,我们用样条项评估了总体暴露-响应曲线。结果:滞后0-2天(当日和前2天的3天移动平均值)BTEX浓度IQR增加与总死亡率、心血管死亡率和呼吸死亡率分别增加0.57% (95% CI 0⋅49-0⋅65)、0.42%(0⋅30-0⋅54)和0.68%(0⋅50-0⋅86)相关。对单个化学物质(苯、甲苯和二甲苯)IQR增量的相应效应估计分别为0⋅38-0⋅61%、0⋅44-0⋅70%和0⋅41-0⋅65%。在调整了共同污染物之后,这种关联仍然显著,总体上有所下降,除了调整了臭氧之后略有增加。所有污染物和死亡原因的暴露-反应曲线的形状几乎是线性的,在低浓度时斜率更陡,没有明显的阈值。解释:这项全球研究提供了新的证据,证明短期暴露于环境BTEX(无论是单独暴露还是混合暴露)与每日总死亡率、心血管死亡率和呼吸道死亡率增加有关。我们的研究结果强调需要制定全面的空气污染缓解政策,包括严格控制BTEX的排放,以保护公众健康。资助项目:非传染性慢性病国家科技重大专项、国家自然科学基金、上海市科技重大专项、上海市“一带一路”联合实验室项目、上海市国际科技合作伙伴项目。
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Although the adverse health effects of BTEX exposure have been documented, robust epidemiological evidence from large-scale, multicountry studies using advanced exposure assessment methodologies remains scarce. We aimed to assess the association of short-term ambient exposure to individual BTEX components and their mixture with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Methods: &lt;/strong&gt;Daily data on mortality, meteorological factors, and air pollution were collected from 757 locations across 46 countries or regions. Data on individual chemicals (ie, benzene, toluene, xylenes [summation of ethylbenzene, m-xylene, p-xylene, and o-xylene]) and the aggregate mixture (ie, BTEX) were estimated using a chemistry-climate model. We examined the short-term associations of each individual chemical as well as the BTEX mixture with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in a multicountry framework. Using a two-stage time-series design, we first applied generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution to obtain location-specific associations, which were subsequently pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Two-pollutant models were used to assess the independent effects of BTEX after adjusting for co-pollutants (PM&lt;sub&gt;2⋅5&lt;/sub&gt;, PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt;, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Additionally, we assessed the overall exposure-response curves with spline terms.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Findings: &lt;/strong&gt;An IQR increment of BTEX concentration on lag 0-2 days (3-day moving average of the present day and the previous 2 days) was associated with increases of 0⋅57% (95% CI 0⋅49-0⋅65), 0⋅42% (0⋅30-0⋅54), and 0⋅68% (0⋅50-0⋅86) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The corresponding effect estimates for an IQR increment in individual chemicals (benzene, toluene, and xylenes) were 0⋅38-0⋅61%, 0⋅44-0⋅70%, and 0⋅41-0⋅65%, respectively. The associations remained significant after adjusting for co-pollutants, with a general decline in magnitude, except for a slight increase after adjustment for ozone. The shape of the exposure-response curves for all pollutants and causes of death was almost linear, with steeper slopes at low concentrations and no discernible thresholds.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Interpretation: &lt;/strong&gt;This global study provides novel evidence linking short-term exposure to ambient BTEX, both individually and as a mixture, with increased daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings underscore the need for comprehensive air pollution mitigation policies, including stringent controls on BTEX emissions, to protect public health.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Funding: &lt;/strong&gt;Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project, ","PeriodicalId":7982,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Environment and Resources","volume":"50 1","pages":"247-272"},"PeriodicalIF":16.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145285390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lethal Heat and Humidity Events. 致命的高温和潮湿事件。
IF 16 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-111523-102139
Shuang Zhou, Yao Wu, Yanming Liu, Yuan Gao, Pei Yu, Rongbin Xu, Gongbo Chen, Tingting Ye, Wenhua Yu, Juan Antonio Añel, Peng Bi, Angie Bone, Kristie L Ebi, Antonio Gasparrini, Masahiro Hashizume, Ollie Jay, Yoonhee Kim, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Jason Kai Wei Lee, Tiantian Li, Shao Lin, Lina Madaniyazi, Jinah Park, Fontina Petrakopoulou, Xerxes Seposo, Aurelio Tobias, Shanshan Li, Yuming Guo

Climate change increasingly threatens global health as more frequent extreme heat events, combined with varying humidity levels, exacerbate both direct and indirect health risks, strain energy resources, and lead to economic loss. Vulnerable populations, including the elderly, young children, and those with preexisting health conditions, face greater risks due to lower physiological adaptive capacity. Those from socioeconomically disadvantaged communities are also vulnerable because of increased exposure and reduced capacity. While research has expanded our understanding of the physiological effects of extreme heat and humidity, challenges persist, including inconsistent data, lack of unified heat wave definitions, and limited knowledge of their impact on mortality and morbidity especially in specific populations. Addressing these challenges requires enhanced data and a comprehensive evaluation of humidity's modifying effects. Global collaboration to strengthen heat health action plans is essential, with future efforts focusing on enhancing the accessibility and effectiveness of interventions, especially in underresourced regions.

气候变化日益威胁全球健康,因为极端高温事件更加频繁,加上湿度水平变化,加剧了直接和间接的健康风险,使能源资源紧张,并导致经济损失。由于生理适应能力较低,弱势群体,包括老年人、幼儿和先前存在健康问题的人,面临更大的风险。那些来自社会经济上处于不利地位的社区的人也容易受到影响,因为他们受到的影响增加,能力下降。虽然研究扩大了我们对极端高温和极端湿度的生理影响的理解,但挑战仍然存在,包括数据不一致,缺乏统一的热浪定义,以及对其对死亡率和发病率的影响的认识有限,特别是在特定人群中。应对这些挑战需要增强数据和对湿度调节效应的全面评估。加强健康行动计划的全球合作至关重要,今后的工作重点是提高干预措施的可及性和有效性,特别是在资源不足的区域。
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引用次数: 0
State of the World's Rivers 世界河流状况
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-111022-020951
Sheikh Tawhidul Islam, Syed Hafizur Rahman, Mir A. Matin, Aniruddha Dey, Byomkesh Talukder, Nandini Sanyal, Md. Asadujjaman, Kamruzzaman Akand
In this review, we thoroughly analyze the state of global rivers, focusing on their physical and ecological characteristics as well as management strategies. The review results have helped us generate four recommendations. Firstly, rivers should be managed under a legally binding global accord at the basin level. Secondly, challenges related to river pollution and inappropriate project implementation can be mitigated by adopting newly defined strategic environmental assessments and the United Nations System of Environmental Economic Accounting. Thirdly, we need data from the latest scientific sources, such as geospatial sources, to better understand rivers at different scales as composite systems. The last recommendation calls for taking into account climate change concerns in river management approaches. We also outline a proposition for developing a river monitoring and assessment program in order to perform comprehensive and planet-wide river assessment. The article elaborates on the strategies for achieving these recommendations.
在本综述中,我们深入分析了全球河流的现状,重点关注其物理和生态特征以及管理策略。审查结果帮助我们提出了四项建议。首先,应在流域层面根据具有法律约束力的全球协议对河流进行管理。其次,通过采用新定义的战略环境评估和联合国环境经济核算体系,可以缓解与河流污染和不当项目实施相关的挑战。第三,我们需要来自最新科学来源(如地理空间来源)的数据,以更好地了解作为综合系统的不同尺度的河流。最后一项建议要求在河流管理方法中考虑气候变化问题。我们还概述了制定河流监测和评估计划的建议,以便对整个地球的河流进行全面评估。文章详细阐述了实现这些建议的战略。
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引用次数: 0
Uncovering the Multibiome Environmental and Earth System Legacies of Past Human Societies 揭示过去人类社会的多生物组环境和地球系统遗产
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-101257
Patrick Roberts, Victor L. Caetano-Andrade, Michael Fisher, Rebecca Hamilton, Rachel Rudd, Freg Stokes, Noel Amano, Mariya Antonosyan, Andrew Dugmore, David Max Findley, Verónica Zuccarelli Freire, Laura Pereira Furquim, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, George Hambrecht, Phoebe Heddell-Stevens, Victor Iminjili, Deepak Kumar Jha, Gopesh Jha, Rahab N. Kinyanjui, Shira Y. Maezumi, Kathleen D. Morrison, Jürgen Renn, Janelle Stevenson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Michael Ziegler, Vernon L. Scarborough, Sam White, Dagomar Degroot, Adam S. Green, Christian Isendahl
It has been argued that we have now entered the Anthropocene, a proposed epoch in which humans are having a dominant impact on the Earth system. While some geologists have sought to formalize the Anthropocene as beginning in the mid-twentieth century, its social, geophysical, and environmental roots undoubtedly lie deeper in the past. In this review, we highlight the ways in which human activities across the major biomes of our planet significantly altered parts of the Earth system prior to the Industrial Age. We demonstrate ways in which novel, multidisciplinary approaches can provide detailed insights into long-term human–environment–Earth system interactions. We argue that there is clear evidence for lasting Earth system legacies of pre-Industrial human societies and that archaeology, paleoecology, and historical ecology can provide important, practical insights to help navigate current and future relationships with the planet in more equitable and sustainable ways.
有人认为,我们现在已经进入了 "人类世",这是一个人类对地球系统产生主导影响的时代。虽然一些地质学家试图将人类世正式定义为始于二十世纪中叶,但其社会、地球物理和环境根源无疑更深远。在这篇综述中,我们强调了在工业时代之前,地球上主要生物群落中的人类活动如何显著改变了地球系统的某些部分。我们展示了新颖的多学科方法如何提供关于人类-环境-地球系统长期相互作用的详细见解。我们认为,有明确的证据表明,工业化前的人类社会给地球系统留下了持久的遗产,考古学、古生态学和历史生态学可以提供重要而实用的见解,帮助人们以更加公平和可持续的方式来引导当前和未来与地球的关系。
{"title":"Uncovering the Multibiome Environmental and Earth System Legacies of Past Human Societies","authors":"Patrick Roberts, Victor L. Caetano-Andrade, Michael Fisher, Rebecca Hamilton, Rachel Rudd, Freg Stokes, Noel Amano, Mariya Antonosyan, Andrew Dugmore, David Max Findley, Verónica Zuccarelli Freire, Laura Pereira Furquim, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, George Hambrecht, Phoebe Heddell-Stevens, Victor Iminjili, Deepak Kumar Jha, Gopesh Jha, Rahab N. Kinyanjui, Shira Y. Maezumi, Kathleen D. Morrison, Jürgen Renn, Janelle Stevenson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Michael Ziegler, Vernon L. Scarborough, Sam White, Dagomar Degroot, Adam S. Green, Christian Isendahl","doi":"10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-101257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-101257","url":null,"abstract":"It has been argued that we have now entered the Anthropocene, a proposed epoch in which humans are having a dominant impact on the Earth system. While some geologists have sought to formalize the Anthropocene as beginning in the mid-twentieth century, its social, geophysical, and environmental roots undoubtedly lie deeper in the past. In this review, we highlight the ways in which human activities across the major biomes of our planet significantly altered parts of the Earth system prior to the Industrial Age. We demonstrate ways in which novel, multidisciplinary approaches can provide detailed insights into long-term human–environment–Earth system interactions. We argue that there is clear evidence for lasting Earth system legacies of pre-Industrial human societies and that archaeology, paleoecology, and historical ecology can provide important, practical insights to help navigate current and future relationships with the planet in more equitable and sustainable ways.","PeriodicalId":7982,"journal":{"name":"Annual Review of Environment and Resources","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":16.4,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142178469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Status of the World's Soils 世界土壤现状
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-030323-075629
Pete Smith, Rosa M. Poch, David A. Lobb, Ranjan Bhattacharyya, Ghiath Alloush, Gaius D. Eudoxie, Lúcia H.C. Anjos, Michael Castellano, Georges M. Ndzana, Claire Chenu, Ravi Naidu, Jeyanny Vijayanathan, Adele M. Muscolo, Guillermo A. Studdert, Natalia Rodriguez Eugenio, M. Costanza Calzolari, Nyambilila Amuri, Paul Hallett
Healthy soils contribute to a wide range of ecosystem services and virtually all of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, but most of the world's soil resources are in only fair, poor, or very poor condition, and conditions are getting worse in more cases than they are improving. A total of 33% of all soils are moderately to highly degraded as a result of erosion, loss of organic matter, poor nutrient balance, salinization and alkalinization, contamination, acidification, loss of biodiversity, sealing, compaction, and poor water status. Best management practices are available to limit or mitigate threats to soil health, and many of them mitigate multiple soil threats. In many regions of the world, policies or initiatives to protect or enhance the status of soils are in place, and they need to be strengthened and enforced. The Food and Agriculture Organisation will publish its second comprehensive assessment of the status of the world's soils in 2025, and this review provides an interim update on world soil status and offers an accessible overview of the topic.
健康的土壤有助于提供广泛的生态系统服务和实现几乎所有的联合国可持续发展目标,但世界上大多数土壤资源的状况仅为一般、较差或极差,而且在更多情况下,土壤状况正在恶化,而非改善。由于侵蚀、有机质流失、养分平衡不良、盐碱化、污染、酸化、生物多样性丧失、密封、压实和水状况不佳,共有 33% 的土壤出现中度到高度退化。现有的最佳管理方法可以限制或减轻对土壤健康的威胁,其中许多方法可以减轻多种土壤威胁。世界上许多地区都制定了保护或改善土壤状况的政策或倡议,这些政策或倡议需要得到加强和执行。联合国粮食及农业组织将于 2025 年发布第二次世界土壤状况综合评估报告,本综述提供了世界土壤状况的中期更新,并对该主题进行了通俗易懂的概述。
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引用次数: 0
Coastal Wetlands in the Anthropocene 人类世的沿海湿地
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-121922-041109
John Day, Edward Anthony, Robert Costanza, Douglas Edmonds, Joel Gunn, Charles Hopkinson, Michael Mann, James Morris, Michael Osland, Tracy Quirk, Andre Rovai, John Rybczyk, Thomas Spencer, Jessica Stephens, Jaia Syvitski, Robert Twilley, Jenneke Visser, John R. White
We review the functioning and sustainability of coastal marshes and mangroves. Urbanized humans have a 7,000-year-old enduring relationship to coastal wetlands. Wetlands include marshes, salt flats, and saline and freshwater forests. Coastal wetlands occur in all climate zones but are most abundant in deltas. Mangroves are tropical, whereas marshes occur from tropical to boreal areas. Quantification of coastal wetland areas has advanced in recent years but is still insufficiently accurate. Climate change and sea-level rise are predicted to lead to significant wetland losses and other impacts on coastal wetlands and the humans associated with them. Landward migration and coastal retreat are not expected to significantly reduce coastal wetland losses. Nitrogen watershed inputs are unlikely to alter coastal marsh stability because watershed loadings are mostly significantly lower than fertilization studies that show decreased belowground biomass and increased decomposition of soil organic matter. Blue carbon is not expected to significantly reduce climate impacts. The high values of ecosystem goods and services of wetlands are expected to be reduced by area losses. Humans have had strong impacts on coastal wetlands in the Holocene, and these impacts are expected to increase in the Anthropocene.
我们回顾了沿海沼泽和红树林的功能和可持续性。城市化的人类与沿海湿地有着长达 7000 年的不解之缘。湿地包括沼泽、盐滩、盐碱地和淡水森林。沿海湿地出现在所有气候带,但在三角洲最为丰富。红树林属于热带植物,而沼泽则分布在热带到寒带地区。近年来,沿海湿地面积的定量工作有所进展,但仍然不够准确。据预测,气候变化和海平面上升将导致湿地大量消失,并对沿岸湿地和与之相关的 人类产生其他影响。向陆地迁移和海岸退缩预计不会显著减少沿岸湿地的损失。流域输入的氮不太可能改变沿岸沼泽的稳定性,因为流域负荷大多大大低于施肥研究,施肥研究表明地下生物量减少,土壤有机物分解增加。蓝碳预计不会显著减少对气候的影响。湿地生态系统产品和服务的高价值预计会因面积减少而降低。在全新世,人类对沿岸湿地产生了强烈的影响,预计在人类世,这些影响还会加剧。
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引用次数: 0
Decarbonizing the US Energy System 美国能源系统去碳化
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-091927
Thomas P. Hendrickson, Nikit Abhyankar, Priyanka Mohanty, Kimberley K. Mayfield, Whitney Kirkendall, Alexander J. Stanley, Stephen Stack, Hung-Chia Yang, Andrew J. Satchwell
Recent rapid and unexpected cost reductions in decarbonization technologies have accelerated the cost-effective decarbonization of the US economy, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions falling by 20% from 2005 to 2020. The literature on US economy-wide decarbonization focuses on maximizing long-term GHG emissions reduction strategies that rely mostly on renewable energy expansion, electrification, and efficiency improvements to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. While these studies provide a valuable foundation, further research is needed to properly support decarbonization policy development and implementation. In this review, we identify key decarbonization analysis gaps and opportunities, including issues related to cross-sectoral linkages, spatial and temporal granularity, consumer behavior, emerging technologies, equity and environmental justice, and political economy. We conclude by discussing the implications of these analysis gaps for US decarbonization pathways and how they relate to challenges facing major global emitters.
最近,去碳化技术的成本出乎意料地迅速降低,加速了美国经济具有成本效益的去碳化进程,从 2005 年到 2020 年,温室气体(GHG)排放量下降了 20%。有关美国经济范围内去碳化的文献主要集中在最大限度地减少温室气体排放的长期战略上,这些战略主要依赖于可再生能源的扩张、电气化和效率的提高,以便在 2050 年之前实现温室气体净零排放。虽然这些研究提供了宝贵的基础,但仍需进一步研究,以适当支持去碳化政策的制定和实施。在本综述中,我们确定了去碳化分析的主要差距和机遇,包括与跨部门联系、空间和时间粒度、消费者行为、新兴技术、公平和环境正义以及政治经济学有关的问题。最后,我们将讨论这些分析差距对美国脱碳途径的影响,以及它们与全球主要排放国所面临挑战的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Just Sustainability Transitions: Politics, Power, and Prefiguration in Transformative Change Toward Justice and Sustainability 公正的可持续性过渡:实现正义和可持续性的转型变革中的政治、权力和预设
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-081722
Flor Avelino, Katinka Wijsman, Frank van Steenbergen, Shivant Jhagroe, Julia Wittmayer, Sanne Akerboom, Kristina Bogner, Esther F. Jansen, Niki Frantzeskaki, Agni Kalfagianni
Facing the world's ecological, economic, and social challenges requires us to connect the concepts of justice, sustainability, and transitions. Bridging and discussing heterogeneous fields, we argue that these concepts need to complement each other, and we present just sustainability transitions (JUSTRAs) to do so. To define JUSTRAs, we review the state-of-the-art literature, focusing on the understanding of these three concepts and their pairings in various disciplinary fields and empirical settings (e.g., environmental justice, just transitions, sustainability transitions, energy justice, food justice, urban justice). We center marginalized voices to highlight the processes of radical transformative change that JUSTRAs seek. We offer three analytical lenses that further the understanding of JUSTRAs: politics, power, and prefiguration. We argue that these complementary lenses are necessary to remake the world in both critical and pragmatic ways. Finally, we present a research agenda on JUSTRAs, foregrounding three complementary modes of inquiry: analyzing, critiquing, designing.
面对世界的生态、经济和社会挑战,我们需要将公正、可持续性和过渡的概念联系起来。我们认为,这些概念需要相互补充,并为此提出了公正的可持续性过渡(JUSTRA)。为了定义 "公正的可持续发展过渡",我们回顾了最新的文献,重点关注对这三个概念的理解以及它们在不同学科领域和实证环境中的搭配(例如,环境公正、公正的过渡、可持续发展过渡、能源公正、食品公正、城市公正)。我们以边缘化的声音为中心,突出强调了 "正义过渡 "所寻求的彻底变革过程。我们提供了三个分析视角:政治、权力和预示,以进一步加深对 JUSTRA 的理解。我们认为,这些互补的视角对于以批判和务实的方式重塑世界是必要的。最后,我们提出了关于 JUSTRA 的研究议程,强调三种互补的研究模式:分析、批判和设计。
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引用次数: 0
Solar Geoengineering: History, Methods, Governance, Prospects 太阳地球工程:历史、方法、治理、前景
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-081911
Edward A. Parson, David W. Keith
Solar geoengineering, also called sunlight reflection or solar radiation modification (SRM), is a potential climate response that would cool the Earth's surface and reduce many other climate changes by scattering on order 1% of incoming sunlight back to space. SRM can only imperfectly correct for elevated greenhouse gases, but it might complement other climate responses to reduce risks, while also bringing new risks and new challenges to global governance. As climate alarm and calls for effective near-term action mount, SRM is attracting sharply increased attention and controversy, with many calls for expanded research and governance consultations along with ongoing concerns about risks, misuse, or overreliance. We review SRM's history, methods, potential uses and impacts, and governance needs, prioritizing the approach that is most prominent and promising, stratospheric aerosol injection. We identify several policy-relevant characteristics of SRM interventions and identify four narratives that capture current arguments over how SRM might be developed or used in socio-political context to either beneficial or destructive effect, with implications for near-term research, assessment, and governance activity.
太阳地球工程,也称为太阳光反射或太阳辐射修正(SRM),是一种潜在的气候应对措施,它可以通过将大约 1%的射入太阳光散射回太空来冷却地球表面并减少许多其他气候变化。SRM 只能对升高的温室气体进行不完全的修正,但它可以补充其他气候应对措施以降低风险,同时也会给全球治理带来新的风险和新的挑战。随着气候警报和要求近期采取有效行动的呼声日益高涨,SRM 正吸引着越来越多的关注和争议,许多人呼吁扩大研究和治理磋商,同时对风险、滥用或过度依赖等问题持续关注。我们回顾了 SRM 的历史、方法、潜在用途和影响以及治理需求,优先考虑最突出、最有前景的方法--平流层气溶胶注入。我们确定了 SRM 干预措施的几个政策相关特征,并确定了四种叙述方式,这些叙述方式反映了当前关于如何在社会政治背景下开发或使用 SRM 以产生有益或破坏性影响的争论,并对近期研究、评估和治理活动产生了影响。
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引用次数: 0
Changing Human Behavior to Conserve Biodiversity 改变人类行为,保护生物多样性
IF 16.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-111522-103028
Diogo Veríssimo, Katie Blake, Hilary Byerly Flint, Hunter Doughty, Dulce Espelosin, Emily A. Gregg, Takahiro Kubo, Judy Mann-Lang, Laura R. Perry, Matthew J. Selinske, Ganga Shreedhar, Laura Thomas-Walters
Conservation of biodiversity is above all else an exercise in human persuasion. Human behavior drives all substantive threats to biodiversity; therefore, influencing it is the only path to mitigating the current extinction crisis. We review the literature across three different axes to highlight current evidence on influencing human behavior for conservation. First, we look at behavioral interventions to mitigate different threats, from pollution and climate change to invasive species and human disturbance. Next, we examine interventions focused on different stakeholders, from voters, investors, and environmental managers to consumers, producers, and extractors. Finally, we review delivery channels, ranging from mass and social media to interventions involving changes to the physical environment or carried out in person. We highlight key gaps, including the lack of scale and robust impact evaluation of most interventions, and the need to prioritize behaviors, overcome the reproducibility crisis, and deal with inequality when designing and implementing behavior change interventions.
保护生物多样性首先要说服人类。人类行为是生物多样性面临的所有实质性威胁的驱动因素;因此,影响人类行为是缓解当前生物灭绝危机的唯一途径。我们从三个不同的方面对文献进行了回顾,以突出当前影响人类行为以促进保护的证据。首先,我们研究了为缓解不同威胁而采取的行为干预措施,从污染和气候变化到入侵物种和人类干扰。其次,我们研究了针对不同利益相关者的干预措施,从选民、投资者、环境管理者到消费者、生产者和开采者。最后,我们回顾了实施渠道,从大众媒体和社交媒体到涉及物理环境变化或亲自实施的干预措施。我们强调了主要的差距,包括大多数干预措施缺乏规模和强有力的影响评估,以及在设计和实施行为改变干预措施时需要优先考虑行为、克服可重复性危机和处理不平等问题。
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引用次数: 0
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Annual Review of Environment and Resources
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