A Bayesian DSGE approach to modelling cryptocurrency

IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Review of Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI:10.1016/j.red.2023.09.006
Stylianos Asimakopoulos , Marco Lorusso , Francesco Ravazzolo
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Abstract

We develop and estimate a DSGE model to evaluate the economic repercussions of cryptocurrency. In our model, cryptocurrency offers an alternative currency option to government currency, with endogenous supply and demand. We uncover a substitution effect between the real balances of government currency and cryptocurrency in response to technology, preferences and monetary policy shocks. We find that an increase in cryptocurrency productivity induces a rise in the relative price of government currency with respect to cryptocurrency. Since cryptocurrency and government currency are highly substitutable, the demand for the former increases whereas it drops for the latter. Our historical decomposition analysis shows that fluctuations in the cryptocurrency price are mainly driven by shocks in cryptocurrency demand, whereas changes in the real balances for government currency are mainly attributed to government currency and cryptocurrency demand shocks.

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用贝叶斯 DSGE 方法模拟加密货币
我们建立并估算了一个 DSGE 模型,以评估加密货币的经济影响。在我们的模型中,加密货币提供了政府货币之外的另一种货币选择,具有内生供求关系。我们发现政府货币和加密货币的实际余额之间存在替代效应,以应对技术、偏好和货币政策冲击。我们发现,加密货币生产率的提高会导致政府货币相对于加密货币的相对价格上升。由于加密货币和政府货币具有高度的可替代性,对前者的需求增加,而对后者的需求下降。我们的历史分解分析表明,加密货币价格的波动主要受加密货币需求冲击的影响,而政府货币实际余额的变化主要归因于政府货币和加密货币需求的冲击。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
69
期刊介绍: Review of Economic Dynamics publishes meritorious original contributions to dynamic economics. The scope of the journal is intended to be broad and to reflect the view of the Society for Economic Dynamics that the field of economics is unified by the scientific approach to economics. We will publish contributions in any area of economics provided they meet the highest standards of scientific research.
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