Review of Economic Dynamics最新文献

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Monetary policy stabilization in a new Keynesian model under climate change 气候变化下新凯恩斯主义模型中的货币政策稳定问题

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101260

George Economides , Anastasios Xepapadeas

We address the question of whether monetary policy is affected by the detrimental impact of climate change on an economy's productivity and, if so, whether policymakers should take it into account when designing policies to stabilize the business cycle. To do this, we develop a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a closed economy which incorporates a climate module that interacts with the economy. In this framework, monetary authorities choose the nominal interest rate on government bonds. The model is solved numerically using parameter values calibrated to the US economy. Our results, which are robust to both extensions and a large number of sensitivity checks, suggest non-trivial implications for the design of optimal monetary policy irrespectively of whether the shocks hitting the economy are standard economic shocks, climate shocks, or shocks to the price of energy.

我们要探讨的问题是：货币政策是否会受到气候变化对经济生产力的不利影响；如果会，决策者在制定稳定商业周期的政策时是否应将其考虑在内。为此，我们建立了一个封闭经济的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型，其中包含一个与经济相互作用的气候模块。在此框架下，货币当局选择政府债券的名义利率。该模型使用根据美国经济校准的参数值进行数值求解。无论冲击经济的是标准经济冲击、气候冲击还是能源价格冲击，我们的结果都对最优货币政策的设计产生了非同小可的影响。

引用次数: 0

Aggregate fluctuations and the role of trade credit 总量波动和贸易信贷的作用

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101258

Lin Shao

This paper studies the aggregate implications of trade credit in a dynamic, general equilibrium model where heterogeneous entrepreneurs choose their lending and borrowing of trade credit in the presence of financial frictions. Motivated by empirical evidence, the model shows how trade credit flows from less constrained firms to more constrained ones, both in the cross-sectional distribution and in firms' response to heterogeneous financial shocks. In the face of an aggregate financial shock, entrepreneurs reduce their trade credit lending, further tightening their customers' borrowing constraints, resulting in an amplification of the initial shock. In contrast, when the financial shock only affects some, but not all, entrepreneurs, trade credit facilitates the flow of financing to entrepreneurs in financial distress, thereby mitigating its negative impacts. This mechanism, however, is only effective when the shock affects a sufficiently small number of entrepreneurs.

本文在一个动态的一般均衡模型中研究了贸易信贷的总体影响，在该模型中，异质企业家在金融摩擦的情况下选择贸易信贷的借贷。受经验证据的启发，该模型展示了贸易信贷如何从约束较少的企业流向约束较多的企业，这既体现在横截面分布上，也体现在企业对异质性金融冲击的反应上。面对总体金融冲击，企业家会减少贸易信贷借贷，进一步收紧客户的借贷约束，从而导致初始冲击的放大。相反，当金融冲击只影响部分而非全部企业家时，贸易信贷会促进资金流向陷入财务困境的企业家，从而减轻其负面影响。然而，只有当冲击影响到足够少的企业家时，这种机制才会有效。

引用次数: 0

Unconventional monetary and fiscal policy 非常规货币和财政政策

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101259

Jing Cynthia Wu , Yinxi Xie

We build a tractable New Keynesian model to jointly study four types of monetary and fiscal policy. We find quantitative easing (QE) and tax-financed fiscal transfers or government spending have similar effects on the aggregate economy. Compared with these three policies, conventional monetary policy is more inflationary. QE and transfers have redistribution consequences, whereas others do not. Ricardian equivalence breaks: tax-financed fiscal policy is more stimulative than debt-financed policy. Finally, we study optimal policy coordination and find that adjusting two types of policy instruments can stabilize three targets simultaneously: inflation, the aggregate output gap, and cross-sectional consumption dispersion.

我们建立了一个可操作的新凯恩斯主义模型，来共同研究四种类型的货币和财政政策。我们发现量化宽松（QE）和税收资助的财政转移支付或政府支出对总体经济的影响相似。与这三种政策相比，传统的货币政策更容易引发通货膨胀。量化宽松和转移支付会产生再分配的后果，而其他政策则不会。李嘉图等价关系被打破：税收资助的财政政策比债务资助的政策更具刺激性。最后，我们研究了最优政策协调，发现调整两类政策工具可以同时稳定三个目标：通货膨胀、总产出缺口和横截面消费离散。

引用次数: 0

Means-tested programs and interstate migration in the United States 美国的经济情况调查计划和州际移民

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101256

Álvaro Jáñez

This paper quantifies the impact of means-tested programs – in particular, Medicaid and Public Housing – on the interstate mobility of their beneficiaries. Simulations from a structural model with heterogeneous workers and locations show that beneficiaries' mobility falls by 17.2 percent, with the greatest reduction occurring among the poorest beneficiaries. Around half of this effect stems from the lack of federal coordination in the programs' administrations, namely, the possibility that a moving beneficiary loses transfers despite being eligible for them. A policy that eliminates this risk raises overall welfare, with 5 percent of low-income households enjoying a welfare gain of 1.1 percent.

本文量化了经济情况调查项目--尤其是医疗补助和公共住房--对其受益人州际流动性的影响。一个具有异质性工人和地点的结构模型模拟显示，受益人的流动性下降了 17.2%，其中最贫困的受益人的流动性下降幅度最大。这种影响的一半左右源于联邦在项目管理上缺乏协调，即流动的受益人尽管有资格享受转移支付，但仍有可能失去转移支付。消除这种风险的政策会提高整体福利，5% 的低收入家庭会享受到 1.1% 的福利增长。

引用次数: 0

Home construction financing and search frictions in the housing market 住房市场中的住房建设融资和搜索摩擦

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101253

Miroslav Gabrovski , Victor Ortego-Marti

This paper studies the effects of financial frictions in construction on housing market dynamics. To this end, we build a search-theoretic model of the housing market in which there is endogenous entry of buyers and developers face credit constraints. We capture credit frictions by assuming that developers must search for financing before building a home à la Wasmer and Weil (2004). Our model explores a novel channel that links credit frictions faced by developers to the housing market. We calibrate the model to quantify the size of the credit channel during the 2012–2019 housing market recovery. Through a series of counterfactuals, our model predicts that the credit channel had a large impact on housing liquidity, construction, and the vacancy rate. Furthermore, it accounts for around half of the rise in prices during the 2012-2019 housing market recovery.

本文研究了建筑业的金融摩擦对住房市场动态的影响。为此，我们建立了一个住房市场的搜索理论模型，在这个模型中，购房者存在内生性进入，开发商面临信贷约束。我们假定开发商在建造房屋之前必须寻找融资，从而捕捉信贷摩擦，这一点与 Wasmer 和 Weil（2004 年）的研究类似。我们的模型探索了一个将开发商面临的信贷摩擦与住房市场联系起来的新渠道。我们对模型进行了校准，以量化 2012-2019 年房地产市场复苏期间信贷渠道的规模。通过一系列反事实分析，我们的模型预测信贷渠道对住房流动性、建设和空置率有很大影响。此外，在 2012-2019 年房地产市场复苏期间，信贷渠道约占房价上涨的一半。

引用次数: 0

A job ladder model of executive compensation 高管薪酬的职位阶梯模式

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101257

Bo Hu

This paper examines the impact of managerial labor market competition on executive incentive contracts. I develop a dynamic contracting model that incorporates moral hazard, search frictions, and poaching offers. The model generates a job ladder along which executives can either use outside offers to renegotiate with the current firm or transition to outside firms. I show that poaching offers generate a new source of incentives, which explains a novel empirical finding whereby larger firms give executives a higher proportion of incentive compensation.

本文探讨了经理人劳动力市场竞争对高管激励合同的影响。我建立了一个包含道德风险、搜索摩擦和挖角提议的动态契约模型。该模型产生了一个职位阶梯，高管们可以沿着这个阶梯利用外部要约与当前公司重新谈判，或者过渡到外部公司。我的研究表明，"挖角 "会产生新的激励来源，这就解释了一个新的经验发现，即规模较大的公司会给予高管更高比例的激励报酬。

引用次数: 0

Migration spillovers within families: Evidence from Thailand 家庭内部的移民溢出效应：泰国的证据

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101255

Travis Baseler

When a person migrates, are their family members more likely to migrate too? I estimate the causal impact of family migrant network size on migration decisions using household survey data from rural Thailand. Large but temporary labor demand shocks in a nearby city—originating from a national infrastructure program—provide plausibly exogenous variation in family members' migration decisions based on their ages at the time of the program. Among those too young to be directly impacted by the program, I find that each older family migrant increases their migration probability by about 5 percentage points. Further analysis suggests a role for better information about the destination in driving this impact. My findings imply that the short-run benefits of relieving migration constraints can underestimate the long-run benefits due to spillovers within the household.

一个人移民后，其家庭成员是否也更有可能移民？我利用泰国农村的家庭调查数据估算了家庭移民网络规模对移民决策的因果影响。附近城市巨大但暂时的劳动力需求冲击源于一项国家基础设施计划，它根据家庭成员在该计划实施时的年龄，为家庭成员的移民决策提供了看似外生的变化。在那些因年龄太小而无法直接受到该计划影响的人中，我发现每一个年龄较大的家庭移民都会使其移民概率增加约 5 个百分点。进一步的分析表明，更好的目的地信息对这一影响起到了推动作用。我的研究结果表明，由于家庭内部的溢出效应，缓解移民限制的短期收益可能会低估长期收益。

引用次数: 0

Mergers, firm size, and volatility in a granular economy 粒状经济中的兼并、公司规模和波动性

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101254

Jackie M.L. Chan , Han (Steffan) Qi

We study the firm dynamics associated with mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and their implications at the micro and macro levels. Our paper presents three main findings: (i) mergers generate a more fat-tailed firm-size distribution, thereby amplifying granular fluctuations and increasing aggregate volatility; (ii) the impact of mergers depends on strategic market power and endogenous markups; and (iii) under endogenous markups, we provide a novel characterization of the firm size-volatility relationship in which volatility declines disproportionately with size. We build a quantitative model of domestic horizontal mergers and find a sizeable impact of mergers on aggregate volatility using counterfactual analysis.

我们研究了与并购（M&A）相关的企业动态及其在微观和宏观层面的影响。我们的论文提出了三个主要发现：(i) 兼并会导致企业规模分布更加肥尾，从而放大细微波动并增加总体波动性；(ii) 兼并的影响取决于战略市场力量和内生加价；(iii) 在内生加价的情况下，我们提供了企业规模-波动关系的新特征，即波动性随企业规模不成比例地下降。我们建立了一个国内横向兼并的定量模型，并通过反事实分析发现兼并对总体波动性有相当大的影响。

引用次数: 0

Cyclical worker flows: Cleansing vs. sullying 周期性工人流动：清洁与玷污

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101252

John Haltiwanger , Henry Hyatt , Erika McEntarfer , Matthew Staiger

Do recessions speed up or impede productivity-enhancing reallocation? To investigate this question, we use U.S. linked employer-employee data to examine how worker flows contribute to productivity growth over the business cycle. We find that in expansions high-productivity firms grow faster primarily by hiring workers away from low-productivity firms. Productivity growth slows during recessions when this job ladder collapses. In contrast, layoffs at low-productivity firms disproportionately increase in recessions, which leads to an increase in productivity growth. We thus find evidence of both sullying and cleansing effects of recessions, but the timing of these effects differs. The cleansing effects are concentrated in downturns while the sullying effects linger well into the economic recovery. Our results imply that slow labor market recoveries will be more damaging to productivity growth than V-shaped recoveries due to lingering sullying effects.

经济衰退会加速还是阻碍提高生产力的重新配置？为了研究这个问题，我们使用了美国的雇主-雇员关联数据来研究工人流动在商业周期中是如何促进生产率增长的。我们发现，在经济扩张期，高生产率企业主要通过从低生产率企业雇佣工人来加快增长。在经济衰退时期，当这种就业阶梯崩溃时，生产力增长就会放缓。相反，在经济衰退时，低生产率企业的裁员会不成比例地增加，从而导致生产率增长。因此，我们发现了经济衰退既有玷污效应也有净化效应的证据，但这些效应产生的时间不同。净化效应集中在经济衰退时期，而玷污效应则一直持续到经济复苏时期。我们的研究结果表明，由于玷污效应的持续存在，劳动力市场的缓慢复苏比 V 型复苏对生产率增长的破坏性更大。

引用次数: 0

One rule fits all? Heterogeneous fiscal rules for commodity exporters when price shocks can be persistent: Theory and evidence 一刀切？当价格冲击可能持续存在时，商品出口国的异质财政规则：理论与证据

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101239

Arthur Mendes, Steven Pennings

This paper reevaluates the common characterization of commodity-exporting developing economies as having excessively procyclical fiscal policy. We develop a new measure of fiscal procyclicality—the marginal propensity to spend (MPS) an extra dollar of commodity revenues—which we estimate in a panel of countries and compare with optimal policy in a New Keynesian model. Empirically, fiscal policy is procyclical on average (MPS=0.25), but heterogeneous. Countries with fixed exchange rates (ER) are almost acyclical, but countries with flexible ERs are procyclical and the MPS increases with the persistence of commodity price shocks. Optimal policy in the model is similar qualitatively but differs quantitatively in some dimensions. Under fixed ERs, optimal policy is almost acyclical to stabilize the business cycle. However, under flexible ERs, monetary policy stabilizes the business cycle, so fiscal policy is procyclical because commodity price shocks are typically persistent and so should be spent by the permanent income hypothesis.

本文重新评估了商品出口型发展中经济体财政政策过度顺周期的普遍特征。我们开发了一种衡量财政顺周期性的新方法--边际支出倾向（MPS），即多支出一美元的商品收入--我们对一组国家进行了估算，并将其与新凯恩斯主义模型中的最优政策进行了比较。从经验上看，财政政策平均具有顺周期性（MPS=0.25），但具有异质性。实行固定汇率（ER）的国家几乎是非周期性的，但实行灵活汇率（ER）的国家是顺周期性的，而且 MPS 随商品价格冲击的持续性而增加。模型中的最优政策在质上相似，但在量上存在一些差异。在固定的经济周期下，最优政策几乎是非周期性的，以稳定商业周期。然而，在灵活的经济周期下，货币政策可以稳定商业周期，因此财政政策是顺周期的，因为商品价格冲击通常是持续性的，所以根据永久收入假说，财政政策应该是支出性的。

引用次数: 0

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