Pub Date : 2025-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101274
R. Anton Braun , Daisuke Ikeda
We propose a quantitative model of monetary policy over the lifecycle with endogenous portfolio choices. Our model reproduces the average age profiles of asset portfolios, the empirical responses of aggregate variables, and the microeconomic responses of different age groups to a tightening in monetary policy. Households disagree about the benefits of a tighter monetary policy. Consumption and welfare of older age groups increase, but consumption and welfare of younger households fall.
{"title":"Monetary policy over the lifecycle","authors":"R. Anton Braun , Daisuke Ikeda","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101274","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101274","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a quantitative model of monetary policy over the lifecycle with endogenous portfolio choices. Our model reproduces the average age profiles of asset portfolios, the empirical responses of aggregate variables, and the microeconomic responses of different age groups to a tightening in monetary policy. Households disagree about the benefits of a tighter monetary policy. Consumption and welfare of older age groups increase, but consumption and welfare of younger households fall.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101274"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101273
Fengqi Liu , Keqing Liu , Jianpo Xue
This paper demonstrates that, in a standard real business cycle (RBC) model, internal consumption habits alone are sufficient to generate positive comovements among key macroeconomic aggregates in response to news about future productivity. We highlight the prospective channel associated with internal habits, through which the effect of news shocks is transmitted to the present, stimulating current consumption, labor, and investment. Without this channel, other forms of preferences such as external habits fail to generate the positive comovements. The quantitative performance of the model is also discussed. Arguably, we provide a nearly minimal departure from the RBC framework to generate news-driven business cycles.
{"title":"Habit formation and news-driven business cycles","authors":"Fengqi Liu , Keqing Liu , Jianpo Xue","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101273","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper demonstrates that, in a standard real business cycle (RBC) model, internal consumption habits <em>alone</em> are sufficient to generate positive comovements among key macroeconomic aggregates in response to news about future productivity. We highlight <em>the prospective channel</em> associated with internal habits, through which the effect of news shocks is transmitted to the present, stimulating current consumption, labor, and investment. Without this channel, other forms of preferences such as external habits fail to generate the positive comovements. The quantitative performance of the model is also discussed. Arguably, we provide a nearly minimal departure from the RBC framework to generate news-driven business cycles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101273"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143419841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101275
Minjie Deng , Chang Liu
This paper analyzes the impact of a balanced budget rule (BBR) on government financing costs and its implications for the government balance sheet. Exploiting the variation in BBR implementation across US states, we find that states with more stringent BBRs exhibit significantly lower bond spreads and credit default swap spreads, demonstrating the crucial role of default risk. A sovereign default model, which features long-term debt, endogenous investment and output, as well as a BBR, aligns with the empirical result. Calibrated to Illinois, our quantitative analysis suggests that implementing a BBR could dramatically decrease the state bond spread, gradually lower the debt, and improve welfare in the long run.
{"title":"Public financing under balanced budget rules","authors":"Minjie Deng , Chang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101275","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101275","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the impact of a balanced budget rule (BBR) on government financing costs and its implications for the government balance sheet. Exploiting the variation in BBR implementation across US states, we find that states with more stringent BBRs exhibit significantly lower bond spreads and credit default swap spreads, demonstrating the crucial role of default risk. A sovereign default model, which features long-term debt, endogenous investment and output, as well as a BBR, aligns with the empirical result. Calibrated to Illinois, our quantitative analysis suggests that implementing a BBR could dramatically decrease the state bond spread, gradually lower the debt, and improve welfare in the long run.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101275"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143429762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101272
Jake Bradley
To understand the co-movement of vacancies and employment, an equilibrium model with two-sided screening is developed. On one side of the market, both employed and unemployed workers can evaluate multiple job openings simultaneously and decide which ones to apply for. On the other side, firms assess multiple applicants and choose their preferred candidates. This model is calibrated to reflect the U.S. economy. Consistent with data, the model generates significant volatility in vacancies, unemployment, and labor market flows over the business cycle. Moreover, differences in the search behaviors of employed and unemployed workers offer a theoretical explanation for the shift in the Beveridge curve observed after the 2008 recession.
{"title":"Worker-firm screening and the business cycle","authors":"Jake Bradley","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101272","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101272","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To understand the co-movement of vacancies and employment, an equilibrium model with two-sided screening is developed. On one side of the market, both employed and unemployed workers can evaluate multiple job openings simultaneously and decide which ones to apply for. On the other side, firms assess multiple applicants and choose their preferred candidates. This model is calibrated to reflect the U.S. economy. Consistent with data, the model generates significant volatility in vacancies, unemployment, and labor market flows over the business cycle. Moreover, differences in the search behaviors of employed and unemployed workers offer a theoretical explanation for the shift in the Beveridge curve observed after the 2008 recession.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101272"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-06DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101271
Nezih Guner , Yuliya A. Kulikova , Arnau Valladares-Esteban
In the US, the likelihood of a married woman entering the labor force in a given month increases by 60% if her husband loses his job, known as the added worker effect. However, only 1.5% to 3.5% of married women entering the labor force in a given month can be added workers. This raises the question of whether the added worker effect can significantly impact aggregate labor market outcomes. Building on Shimer (2012), we introduce a new methodology to evaluate how joint transitions of married couples across labor market states affect aggregate participation, employment, and unemployment rates. Our results show that the added worker effect significantly impacts aggregate outcomes, increasing married women's participation and employment by 0.72 and 0.65 percentage points each month. Additionally, the added worker effect reduces the cyclicality of married women's participation and unemployment, lowering the correlation between GDP's cyclical components and participation by 4.5 percentage points and unemployment by 8 percentage points.
{"title":"Does the added worker effect matter?","authors":"Nezih Guner , Yuliya A. Kulikova , Arnau Valladares-Esteban","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101271","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101271","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the US, the likelihood of a married woman entering the labor force in a given month increases by 60% if her husband loses his job, known as the added worker effect. However, only 1.5% to 3.5% of married women entering the labor force in a given month can be added workers. This raises the question of whether the added worker effect can significantly impact aggregate labor market outcomes. Building on <span><span>Shimer (2012)</span></span>, we introduce a new methodology to evaluate how joint transitions of married couples across labor market states affect aggregate participation, employment, and unemployment rates. Our results show that the added worker effect significantly impacts aggregate outcomes, increasing married women's participation and employment by 0.72 and 0.65 percentage points each month. Additionally, the added worker effect reduces the cyclicality of married women's participation and unemployment, lowering the correlation between GDP's cyclical components and participation by 4.5 percentage points and unemployment by 8 percentage points.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101271"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143438096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-09DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101270
Emily G. Moschini , Monica Tran-Xuan
We analyze the economic effects of two major family policies in the United States, the Child Tax Credit and the Child Care and Development Fund childcare subsidy, in an overlapping generations framework where altruistic parents invest in their child's skill using their own time and purchased childcare time. The model incorporates differences in the design of these policies and endogenizes low rates of childcare subsidy receipt by including application costs and subsequent rationing. We compare the effects of a recent child tax credit expansion with a spending-equivalent expansion of the childcare subsidy implemented by reducing access frictions. Across steady states, the childcare subsidy expansion generates a larger increase in average adult skill, which leads to larger welfare gains behind the veil of ignorance compared to the tax credit expansion. However, the two policies yield similar average welfare gains for adults who know their own skill level, and the tax credit benefits a larger share of this group.
{"title":"Family policies and child skill accumulation","authors":"Emily G. Moschini , Monica Tran-Xuan","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the economic effects of two major family policies in the United States, the Child Tax Credit and the Child Care and Development Fund childcare subsidy, in an overlapping generations framework where altruistic parents invest in their child's skill using their own time and purchased childcare time. The model incorporates differences in the design of these policies and endogenizes low rates of childcare subsidy receipt by including application costs and subsequent rationing. We compare the effects of a recent child tax credit expansion with a spending-equivalent expansion of the childcare subsidy implemented by reducing access frictions. Across steady states, the childcare subsidy expansion generates a larger increase in average adult skill, which leads to larger welfare gains behind the veil of ignorance compared to the tax credit expansion. However, the two policies yield similar average welfare gains for adults who know their own skill level, and the tax credit benefits a larger share of this group.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101270"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101269
L. Rachel Ngai , Orhun Sevinc
Low-skill workers are concentrated in sectors experiencing fast productivity growth, yet their real wages have stagnated and lagged behind aggregate productivity. We provide evidence demonstrating the importance of a multisector perspective. Central to our mechanism is the decline in the relative price of the low-skill intensive sector driven by its faster productivity growth. This dampens wage gains for low-skill workers by lowering the price of their output relative to their consumption basket, which is further reinforced by shifting them into the sector where less weight is placed on their labor. We calibrate the two-sector model to the 1980–2010 U.S. economy and find this mechanism to be quantitatively important. Our counterfactual analysis reveals that low-skill real wage growth would have nearly doubled if the observed aggregate productivity growth had been evenly distributed across sectors.
{"title":"A multisector perspective on wage stagnation","authors":"L. Rachel Ngai , Orhun Sevinc","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101269","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101269","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Low-skill workers are concentrated in sectors experiencing fast productivity growth, yet their real wages have stagnated and lagged behind aggregate productivity. We provide evidence demonstrating the importance of a multisector perspective. Central to our mechanism is the decline in the relative price of the low-skill intensive sector driven by its faster productivity growth. This dampens wage gains for low-skill workers by lowering the price of their output relative to their consumption basket, which is further reinforced by shifting them into the sector where less weight is placed on their labor. We calibrate the two-sector model to the 1980–2010 U.S. economy and find this mechanism to be quantitatively important. Our counterfactual analysis reveals that low-skill real wage growth would have nearly doubled if the observed aggregate productivity growth had been evenly distributed across sectors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101269"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-09DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101268
Simcha Barkai , Suresh Nallareddy , Maria Ogneva
We reevaluate the role of the capitalization of Intellectual Property Products (IPP) in the decline in the labor share. Using the same aggregate U.S. data as Koh et al. (2020), we show that the labor share has clearly declined in recent decades and that this decline does not depend on the capitalization of IPP. The approach of KSLZ, which estimates a linear time trend for the period 1929–2018, conflates a gradual and long-run increase in IPP investment with a decline in the labor share in recent decades. In addition, in both aggregate and industry data, we show that the increase in the rate of IPP investment is nearly fully offset by depreciation. As a consequence, the labor share of net value added and its decline in recent decades are insensitive to IPP capitalization.
{"title":"Capitalization of intellectual property products does not explain the decline in the labor share","authors":"Simcha Barkai , Suresh Nallareddy , Maria Ogneva","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101268","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101268","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We reevaluate the role of the capitalization of Intellectual Property Products (IPP) in the decline in the labor share. Using the same aggregate U.S. data as <span><span>Koh et al. (2020)</span></span>, we show that the labor share has clearly declined in recent decades and that this decline does not depend on the capitalization of IPP. The approach of KSLZ, which estimates a linear time trend for the period 1929–2018, conflates a gradual and long-run increase in IPP investment with a decline in the labor share in recent decades. In addition, in both aggregate and industry data, we show that the increase in the rate of IPP investment is nearly fully offset by depreciation. As a consequence, the labor share of net value added and its decline in recent decades are insensitive to IPP capitalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101268"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143167224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-15DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101260
George Economides , Anastasios Xepapadeas
We address the question of whether monetary policy is affected by the detrimental impact of climate change on an economy's productivity and, if so, whether policymakers should take it into account when designing policies to stabilize the business cycle. To do this, we develop a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a closed economy which incorporates a climate module that interacts with the economy. In this framework, monetary authorities choose the nominal interest rate on government bonds. The model is solved numerically using parameter values calibrated to the US economy. Our results, which are robust to both extensions and a large number of sensitivity checks, suggest non-trivial implications for the design of optimal monetary policy irrespectively of whether the shocks hitting the economy are standard economic shocks, climate shocks, or shocks to the price of energy.
{"title":"Monetary policy stabilization in a new Keynesian model under climate change","authors":"George Economides , Anastasios Xepapadeas","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We address the question of whether monetary policy is affected by the detrimental impact of climate change on an economy's productivity and, if so, whether policymakers should take it into account when designing policies to stabilize the business cycle. To do this, we develop a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a closed economy which incorporates a climate module that interacts with the economy. In this framework, monetary authorities choose the nominal interest rate on government bonds. The model is solved numerically using parameter values calibrated to the US economy. Our results, which are robust to both extensions and a large number of sensitivity checks, suggest non-trivial implications for the design of optimal monetary policy irrespectively of whether the shocks hitting the economy are standard economic shocks, climate shocks, or shocks to the price of energy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101260"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-12DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101258
Lin Shao
This paper studies the aggregate implications of trade credit in a dynamic, general equilibrium model where heterogeneous entrepreneurs choose their lending and borrowing of trade credit in the presence of financial frictions. Motivated by empirical evidence, the model shows how trade credit flows from less constrained firms to more constrained ones, both in the cross-sectional distribution and in firms' response to heterogeneous financial shocks. In the face of an aggregate financial shock, entrepreneurs reduce their trade credit lending, further tightening their customers' borrowing constraints, resulting in an amplification of the initial shock. In contrast, when the financial shock only affects some, but not all, entrepreneurs, trade credit facilitates the flow of financing to entrepreneurs in financial distress, thereby mitigating its negative impacts. This mechanism, however, is only effective when the shock affects a sufficiently small number of entrepreneurs.
{"title":"Aggregate fluctuations and the role of trade credit","authors":"Lin Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101258","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2024.101258","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the aggregate implications of trade credit in a dynamic, general equilibrium model where heterogeneous entrepreneurs choose their lending and borrowing of trade credit in the presence of financial frictions. Motivated by empirical evidence, the model shows how trade credit flows from less constrained firms to more constrained ones, both in the cross-sectional distribution and in firms' response to heterogeneous financial shocks. In the face of an aggregate financial shock, entrepreneurs reduce their trade credit lending, further tightening their customers' borrowing constraints, resulting in an amplification of the initial shock. In contrast, when the financial shock only affects some, but not all, entrepreneurs, trade credit facilitates the flow of financing to entrepreneurs in financial distress, thereby mitigating its negative impacts. This mechanism, however, is only effective when the shock affects a sufficiently small number of entrepreneurs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 101258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142703603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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