Review of Economic Dynamics最新文献

英文中文

Returns to experience and the elasticity of labor supply 经验回报与劳动力供给弹性

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2026.101323

Scott French, TessM. Stafford

We use a unique dataset and novel empirical strategy to validate the predictions of labor supply models featuring returns to experience, quantify the bias in standard estimates of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) that assume exogenous wage formation, and obtain an unbiased estimate of the IES. Our approach uses the insight that the bias in standard estimates shrinks as returns to experience decline in importance relative to the wage. Our identification strategy does not rely on the structure of the human capital accumulation process but does require observing workers over multiple periods at the very end of their careers. Using data on the daily labor supply of Florida fishermen, we obtain an estimate of the IES that is large (2.5). Consistent with the theory, we find that a “naive” estimate is biased downward by nearly a factor of 2 and that the bias is larger for fishermen early in their career. (JEL E24, J22, J24, J31)

我们使用独特的数据集和新颖的实证策略来验证以经验回报为特征的劳动力供给模型的预测，量化假设外生工资形成的跨期替代弹性（IES）标准估计中的偏差，并获得IES的无偏估计。我们的方法使用了这样一种见解，即随着经验回报相对于工资的重要性下降，标准估计中的偏差会缩小。我们的识别策略不依赖于人力资本积累过程的结构，但确实需要在员工职业生涯末期的多个时期观察他们。利用佛罗里达渔民的每日劳动力供给数据，我们得到了一个很大的IES估计（2.5）。与理论一致的是，我们发现一个“天真”的估计向下偏差了近2倍，并且对于职业生涯早期的渔民来说，偏差更大。（j24, j22, j24, j31）

引用次数: 0

Entry decision, the option to delay entry, and business cycles 进入决策、延迟进入的选项和业务周期

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101319

Ia Vardishvili

This paper demonstrates that the option to delay entry plays an important role in shaping the business cycle behavior of new firms. Using a model calibrated to U.S. firm dynamics, I show that the timing option endogenously generates a countercyclical opportunity cost of entry: during recessions, elevated risk of failure increases the value of waiting, which raises the effective cost of entry. I provide empirical evidence consistent with firms strategically delaying entry in response to changing aggregate conditions. Quantitatively, this channel significantly amplifies firm selection at entry and nearly doubles the cyclical volatility of new firm creation. Overall, variation in the number and composition of entrants accounts for 18 % of aggregate employment fluctuations—a contribution more than halved in a model without the option to delay. Ignoring this channel may also lead to misleading predictions about how new firm entry responds to policy interventions.

本文论证了延迟进入的选择对新企业经济周期行为的形成起着重要作用。我使用一个针对美国企业动态校准的模型，证明了时机选择内生地产生了反周期的进入机会成本：在经济衰退期间，失败风险的增加增加了等待的价值，从而提高了进入的有效成本。我提供的经验证据表明，企业在应对不断变化的总体条件时，会在战略上推迟进入。从数量上讲，这一渠道显著地放大了进入时的企业选择，并使新企业创建的周期性波动几乎翻了一番。总的来说，进入者数量和构成的变化占总就业波动的18%——在没有选择延迟的模型中，这一贡献减少了一半以上。忽视这一渠道也可能导致对新企业进入如何响应政策干预的误导性预测。

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Time averaging meets Heckman, Lochner, and Taber and Ben-Porath 时间平均符合Heckman， Lochner， Taber和Ben-Porath

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101309

Sebastian Graves , Victoria Gregory , Lars Ljungqvist , Thomas J. Sargent

The Heckman et al. (1998a) (HLT) model includes credit markets and within-period labor supply indivisibilities, two essential features of Ljungqvist and Sargent (2006) “time-averaging” models. But by assuming inelastic labor supplies until a mandatory retirement age, it shuts down time-averaging. We activate time-averaging by endogenizing retirement ages. Our addition of a baseline social security system puts all workers at corner solutions of their retirement decisions, letting our model reproduce most outcomes in HLT's model. By dislodging workers from those corners, social security and tax reforms raise the aggregate labor supply elasticity and can bring about a “dual labor market.” HLT's Ben-Porath human capital technologies generate steeper earnings profiles for college-educated workers that in our model make their labor supplies more resilient to tax and social security reforms than high school workers' labor supplies. But nonconvexities inherent in the Ben-Porath technologies can bring “tipping points” at which tax increases cause workers who at lower tax rates had chosen long careers and made substantial human capital investments to jump discretely to choosing much shorter careers and doing much less on-the-job human capital accumulation.

Heckman et al. (1998a) （HLT）模型包括信贷市场和时期内劳动力供给不可分割性，这是Ljungqvist和Sargent（2006）“时间平均”模型的两个基本特征。但是，通过假设劳动力供应在法定退休年龄之前没有弹性，它关闭了时间平均。我们通过内生退休年龄激活时间平均。我们增加了一个基本的社会保障系统，使所有工人都处于退休决定的边缘解决方案，使我们的模型重现了HLT模型中的大多数结果。社会保障和税收改革通过将工人从这些角落转移出去，提高了总劳动力供给弹性，并可能带来“双重劳动力市场”。HLT的Ben-Porath人力资本技术为受过大学教育的工人创造了更陡峭的收入曲线，在我们的模型中，这使得他们的劳动力供应比高中工人的劳动力供应更能适应税收和社会保障改革。但本-波拉斯技术固有的非凸性可能带来“引爆点”，即增税会导致那些在较低税率下选择长期职业并进行大量人力资本投资的工人，转而选择更短的职业生涯，更少地进行在职人力资本积累。

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引用次数: 0

Go big or buy a home: The impact of student debt on career and housing choices 做大还是买房：学生债务对职业和住房选择的影响

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101317

Marc Folch , Luca Mazzone

Student debt decreases post-bachelor school enrollment and earnings growth but does not delay first-time home ownership. We introduce a life-cycle human capital model with wealth heterogeneity and financial frictions and show that high debt balances distort career choices because returns to further education depend on current income. Student debt impacts home ownership in two ways. First, it deters ownership via the traditional wealth channel. Second, it increases ownership by discouraging further education in favor of early labor market entry. Finally, we discuss the impact of student borrowing under different loan repayment schemes.

学生贷款降低了本科毕业后的入学率和收入增长，但不会推迟首次购房。我们引入了一个具有财富异质性和财务摩擦的生命周期人力资本模型，并表明高债务余额扭曲了职业选择，因为继续教育的回报取决于当前收入。学生贷款以两种方式影响房屋所有权。首先，它阻碍了通过传统财富渠道的所有权。其次，它通过阻止进一步教育而支持早期进入劳动力市场来增加所有权。最后，我们讨论了在不同的贷款偿还计划下学生借款的影响。

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Job Ladders by Firm Wage and Productivity” [Review of Economic Dynamics 58C (2025) 101307] “按企业工资及生产力划分的职位阶梯”的勘误表[经济动态评论58C (2025) 101307]

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101320

Antoine Bertheau , Rune Vejlin

引用次数: 0

Protectionism and inequality 保护主义和不平等

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2026.101322

Zhe (Jasmine) Jiang , Zinan Wang

This paper studies the distributional outcomes of protectionism. First, we investigate the short-run distributional effects on workers with different skill levels by estimating structural vector autoregressions (VARs) using high-frequency measures of temporary trade barriers for the United States. We then estimate a panel VAR for a sample of thirty-six countries using the applied tariff rates. Across our empirical exercises, we find robust evidence that protectionism reduces the skill premium but increases the employment ratio between high-skilled and low-skilled workers. To rationalize these findings, we build a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model featuring asymmetric search-and-matching (SAM) frictions, capital-skill complementarity (CSC) in production, and producer dynamics. Our model results replicate the empirical patterns. Our counterfactual analysis highlights the interaction between asymmetric SAM and CSC in qualitatively shaping the distributional patterns of protectionism, with producer dynamics magnifying these effects quantitatively.

本文研究了保护主义的分配结果。首先，我们利用美国临时贸易壁垒的高频测量方法，通过估计结构向量自回归（var），研究了不同技能水平工人的短期分配效应。然后，我们使用适用关税税率估算36个国家样本的面板VAR。在我们的实证研究中，我们发现强有力的证据表明，保护主义降低了技能溢价，但提高了高技能工人和低技能工人之间的就业率。为了合理化这些发现，我们建立了一个两国动态一般均衡模型，该模型包含不对称搜索与匹配（SAM）摩擦、生产中的资本-技能互补性（CSC）和生产者动态。我们的模型结果复制了经验模式。我们的反事实分析强调了不对称的SAM和CSC之间的相互作用，定性地塑造了保护主义的分布模式，生产者动态在定量上放大了这些影响。

引用次数: 0

Sources of rising student debt in the U.S.: College costs, wage inequality, and delinquency 美国学生债务上升的来源：大学费用、工资不平等和拖欠

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101318

Heejeong Kim, Jung Hwan Kim

This paper examines the quantitative implications of rising college costs, wage inequality, and delinquency for the growth of student debt in the U.S. Rising college costs and wage inequality are introduced as exogenous inputs into an incomplete-markets overlapping-generations model with choices of college attendance, student loans, and delinquency. In the benchmark economy, aggregate student debt rises by $314 billion between 1985 and 2014, accounting for approximately 64 % of the observed rise in undergraduate student loans in the U.S. The rise in college costs is the primary driver of the increased borrowing, while the rise in income risk and the decline in student ability lead to higher delinquency rates. Increasing delinquency significantly amplifies debt accumulation: in a counterfactual economy without the option of becoming delinquent, debt increases by only $178 billion. Finally, we show that income-driven repayment (IDR) plans can substantially moderate debt growth, leading to an increase of only $169 billion. This effect arises because IDR reduces delinquency rates by offering greater repayment flexibility.

本文考察了大学成本上升、工资不平等和拖欠对美国学生债务增长的定量影响。大学成本上升和工资不平等作为外生输入引入了一个带有大学出勤率、学生贷款和拖欠选择的不完全市场重叠代模型。在基准经济中，1985年至2014年间，学生债务总额增加了3140亿美元，约占美国观察到的本科学生贷款增长的64%。大学成本的上升是借款增加的主要驱动因素，而收入风险的上升和学生能力的下降导致了更高的拖欠率。拖欠行为的增加显著地放大了债务积累：在一个没有拖欠选择的反事实经济中，债务只增加了1780亿美元。最后，我们表明，收入驱动型还款（IDR）计划可以大幅减缓债务增长，仅增加1690亿美元。产生这种效应是因为IDR通过提供更大的还款灵活性来降低拖欠率。

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引用次数: 0

Firm dynamics, monopsony, and aggregate productivity differences 企业动态、垄断和总生产率差异

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101321

Tristany Armangué-Jubert , Tancredi Rapone , Alessandro Ruggieri

This paper studies how labor market power affects firm dynamics and aggregate productivity. We build a dynamic model of neoclassical monopsony with occupational choice, firm growth, and productivity-enhancing technology adoption. Labor market power lowers efficiency and leads to aggregate output losses by distorting the allocation of labor, entrepreneurship, and innovation decisions. The model is consistent with cross-country evidence of higher life cycle firm growth and higher productivity investment in more competitive labor markets and can explain 25 percent of the differences in aggregate productivity across countries. We find that about 85 percent of the losses are attributable to the lack of technology adoption induced by weaker labor market competition, suggesting that efficiency losses may be greater than those estimated by previous studies.

本文研究劳动力市场力量如何影响企业动态和总生产率。本文建立了一个考虑职业选择、企业成长和生产率提高技术采用的新古典垄断动态模型。劳动力市场力量降低了效率，并通过扭曲劳动力、企业家精神和创新决策的配置，导致总产出损失。该模型与跨国证据一致，即在竞争更激烈的劳动力市场中，更高的生命周期企业增长和更高的生产率投资，可以解释各国总生产率差异的25%。我们发现，大约85%的损失可归因于劳动力市场竞争减弱导致的技术采用不足，这表明效率损失可能比以前的研究估计的要大。

引用次数: 0

Technological change and insuring job loss 技术变革和失业保险

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101308

J. Carter Braxton , Bledi Taska

We examine the role of technological change in shaping insurance to the unemployed. We integrate technological change, occupation choice, and employment risk into a Bewley-style economy to examine the optimal combination of retraining subsidies and public insurance transfers for unemployed workers. We find that the optimal policy introduces a retraining subsidy to unemployed workers and increases the generosity of transfers to the unemployed relative to current U.S. policy. The utilitarian government incorporates retraining subsidies as part of an optimal policy as they provide additional, longer run, consumption insurance after job loss while imposing only modest increases in distortionary taxes. In the absence of technological change, a utilitarian government sets a lower subsidy on the tuition cost of retraining as earnings declines after job loss are less persistent.

我们考察了技术变革在塑造失业保险中的作用。我们将技术变革、职业选择和就业风险整合到一个比利式经济中，以检验失业工人再培训补贴和公共保险转移的最佳组合。我们发现，最优政策引入了对失业工人的再培训补贴，并相对于当前的美国政策增加了对失业人员的转移支付的慷慨程度。功利主义政府将再培训补贴作为最优政策的一部分，因为它们在失业后提供额外的、长期的消费保险，同时只适度增加扭曲性税收。在没有技术变革的情况下，功利主义政府对再培训学费的补贴较低，因为失业持续时间较短后，收入会下降。

引用次数: 0

Spousal spillovers in the labor market: A structural assessment 劳动力市场的配偶溢出效应：结构性评估

IF 2.1 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101300

Sigurd M. Galaasen , Herman Kruse

We explore the importance and nature of elderly couples' labor market interlinkages, and how such linkages shape the response to welfare reforms. To this end, we develop a life-cycle model featuring dual-earner households with heterogeneous age gaps, non-separable leisure preferences, and endogenous retirement. To inform key preference parameters, our calibration exploits quasi-experimental evidence of spousal retirement spillovers from a pension reform in Norway. We show that the experimental evidence is highly informative about the degree of non-separability of leisure and that a substantial level of complementarity is required to match the data. Using our calibrated model, we find that the commonly observed tendency of couples to retire together, despite considerable age-gap heterogeneity, can be entirely explained by leisure complementarities. Moreover, comparing to a model with leisure separability reveals that one-third of the long-run labor supply effect of the pension reform is attributed to complementarity. This illustrates the importance of accounting for interdependent decisions when evaluating policy reforms.

我们探讨了老年夫妇劳动力市场相互联系的重要性和性质，以及这种联系如何影响对福利改革的反应。为此，我们开发了一个具有异质性年龄差距、不可分休闲偏好和内生退休的双职工家庭的生命周期模型。为了告知关键偏好参数，我们的校准利用了挪威养老金改革的配偶退休溢出效应的准实验证据。我们表明，实验证据是关于休闲的不可分割程度的高度信息性，并且需要大量的互补性来匹配数据。使用我们的校准模型，我们发现，尽管存在相当大的年龄差距异质性，但普遍观察到的夫妻共同退休的趋势可以完全用休闲互补性来解释。此外，通过与具有闲暇可分离性的模型进行比较发现，养老金改革的长期劳动力供给效应中有三分之一来自于互补性。这说明了在评估政策改革时考虑相互依存决策的重要性。

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