First Grade GPA as a Predictor of Later Academic Performance in High School

Abstract

The GPA is a universally recognised and utilised metric of academic performance that is considered to also measure a student’s potential for academic performance in the future. In this short communication we examine to what extent the GPA of the first grade of high school predicts performance in the later grades of high school, either generally (as classified in an excellent student, strong student, weak student, or very weak student) or more accurately (as indicated by the exact GPA in the next grade). We also put to the test the widely held notion that it might be best if core courses such as language and mathematics contributed more to the calculation of the GPA compared to secondary courses such as physical education or music. Our findings confirm the predictive properties of the GPA but strongly rebut the notion that a weighted GPA might achieve a better reflection of students’ potential. The study is based on the academic records of every student in Greece that progressed from the first to third grade of high school in the 2016–2019 period. This dataset contains records of more than 85,000 students, making it one of the most extensive studies ever conducted on the topic of the properties of the GPA.