Impact of Concurrent Outbreaks of Livestock and Human Disease on Pork Consumer Price

Abstract

This study analyzes comprehensive impacts of concurrent outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) and COVID-19 on pork consumer prices. For this study, we collect three time series data composed of the number of pigs culled by farms with ASF, the sentiment index for COVID-19 driven by big data sentiment analysis using on-line news texts, and the consumer price of pork belly. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are constructed under three cases according to the presence of diseases. Results show the followings: first, the pork consumer price is affected negatively by ASF but positively by COVID-19. Second, the absolute impact of COVID-19 on price is bigger than that of ASF. Third, a comprehensive model considering both ASF and COVID-19 provides more reasonable results than models considering only one of both diseases.