The impact of home protection schemes on non-performing loans in Greece

Abstract

This paper explores the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) in Greece for the period 2002Q4 to 2018Q2, distinguishing between consumer, housing, and business loans. We contribute to the existing NPL literature by examining the impact of the home protection scheme, which has governed the Greek insolvency framework since the onset of the 2010 crisis. Consistent with previous research on NPLs, our findings indicate that the primary driver for all types of NPL classes has been the business cycle. Additionally, we uncover some evidence suggesting that the initial version of the home protection scheme may have contributed to non-repayment in specific NPL classes as property values declined. However, subsequent amendments to the scheme appear to have played a role in reducing NPL ratios, in addition to the positive effect of improving macroeconomic conditions. Our results offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to address the burden of high NPL levels on Greece's economic recovery.