Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts

IF 6.8 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI:10.1002/wat2.1698
Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Gabriele Messori, Sina Khatami, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
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Abstract

Abstract Advances in impact modeling and numerical weather forecasting have allowed accurate drought monitoring and skilful forecasts that can drive decisions at the regional scale. State‐of‐the‐art drought early‐warning systems are currently based on statistical drought indicators, which do not account for dynamic regional vulnerabilities, and hence neglect the socio‐economic impact for initiating actions. The transition from conventional physical forecasts of droughts toward impact‐based forecasting (IbF) is a recent paradigm shift in early warning services, to ultimately bridge the gap between science and action. The demand to generate predictions of “what the weather will do” underpins the rising interest in drought IbF across all weather‐sensitive sectors. Despite the large expected socio‐economic benefits, migrating to this new paradigm presents myriad challenges. In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview of drought IbF, outlining the progress made in the field. Additionally, we present a road map highlighting current challenges and limitations in the science and practice of drought IbF and possible ways forward. We identify seven scientific and practical challenges/limitations: the contextual challenge (inadequate accounting for the spatio‐sectoral dynamics of vulnerability and exposure), the human‐water feedbacks challenge (neglecting how human activities influence the propagation of drought), the typology challenge (oversimplifying drought typology to meteorological), the model challenge (reliance on mainstream machine learning models), and the data challenge (mainly textual) with the linked sectoral and geographical limitations. Our vision is to facilitate the progress of drought IbF and its use in making informed and timely decisions on mitigation measures, thus minimizing the drought impacts globally. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Methods Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change

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基于影响的干旱预测科学与实践的进展与差距
影响建模和数值天气预报的进步使得精确的干旱监测和熟练的预报能够在区域尺度上推动决策。目前最先进的干旱预警系统是基于统计干旱指标的,这些指标没有考虑到动态的区域脆弱性,因此忽视了启动行动的社会经济影响。从传统的干旱物理预报向基于影响的预报(IbF)过渡是早期预警服务最近的一种模式转变,最终将弥合科学与行动之间的差距。对“天气将会发生什么”进行预测的需求,支撑了所有天气敏感部门对干旱IbF日益增长的兴趣。尽管有巨大的社会经济效益,但向这种新模式的迁移带来了无数的挑战。在本文中,我们提供了干旱IbF的全面概述,概述了在该领域取得的进展。此外,我们还提出了一个路线图,突出了干旱IbF科学和实践中当前的挑战和局限性,以及可能的前进方向。我们确定了七个科学和实践上的挑战/限制:背景挑战(对脆弱性和暴露的空间-部门动态考虑不足),人类-水反馈挑战(忽视人类活动如何影响干旱的传播),类型学挑战(将干旱类型学过度简化为气象),模型挑战(依赖主流机器学习模型),以及数据挑战(主要是文本)与相关的部门和地理限制。我们的愿景是促进干旱IbF的进展,并利用它就缓解措施作出知情和及时的决定,从而最大限度地减少全球干旱的影响。本文分类如下:水科学;水科学>方法:水科学;水与环境变化
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来源期刊
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water Environmental Science-Ecology
CiteScore
16.60
自引率
3.70%
发文量
56
期刊介绍: The WIREs series is truly unique, blending the best aspects of encyclopedic reference works and review journals into a dynamic online format. These remarkable resources foster a research culture that transcends disciplinary boundaries, all while upholding the utmost scientific and presentation excellence. However, they go beyond traditional publications and are, in essence, ever-evolving databases of the latest cutting-edge reviews.
期刊最新文献
Holocene sedimentary history of the Silala River (Antofagasta Region, Chile) Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts The geological evolution of the Silala River basin, Central Andes Hydrogeological characterization of the Silala River catchment Hydrological modeling of the Silala River basin. 2. Validation of hydrological fluxes with contemporary data
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